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Chapter II. Detailed Analysis of Demand

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

This chapter provides a more detailed account of developments in individual sectors in 1965, and presents supporting material for the forecasts. It deals first with the estimates of output at the turn of the year, then with exports and investment. The next section is on incomes, prices, and consumers' expenditure, and following that there is a section on employment, unemployment and the labour force. Finally, there are sections on imports and the balance of payments.

Type
The Economic Situation: Annual Review
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 35 , February 1966 , pp. 13 - 40
Copyright
Copyright © 1966 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Notes

note (1) page 13 Statistical Appendix, table 2.

note (1) page 15 This was in spite of the optimistic forecasts from the industry at the beginning of the year and a 7 per cent rise in total United States registrations of imported cars. Substantially higher figures than this have been published but appear to include in 1965 Volkswagen station wagons previously classed as commercial vehicles.

note (1) page 18 For EFTA this may be because the effect of the seasonal factors is changing; for France and Italy it is because there had been a strong fall in the first half of the year.

note (1) page 20 See R. R. Neild, ‘Replacement policy’, National Institute Economic Review No. 30, November 1964, page 30.

note (1) page 23 Cmnd . 2915.

note (2) page 23 Table 18.1, page 178, footnote 5.

note (1) page 24 This is the earnings figure derived by dividing the total wage and salary bill by the number in civil employment.

note (1) page 27 See R. R. Neild, Pricing and Employment in the Trade Cycle, NIESR Occasional Paper no. 21, Cambridge University Press, 1963; and W. A. H. Godley and D. A. Rowe, ‘Retail and consumer prices, 1955-1963’, National Institute Economic Review No. 30, November 1964, page 44.

note (2) page 27 Statistical Appendix, table 27.

note (1) page 28 The movement in consumer prices during 1965—at least up to the third quarter—was abnormally high, in relation to the retail prices movement. We have assumed that this is an oddity of the 1965 figures, and not a change in the basic relationship.

note (2) page 28 See footnote (f) to table 16.

note (3) page 28 Statistical Appendix table 9 provides detailed figures, together with a fourth quarter estimate.

note (4) page 28 Customs and Excise have taken steps to prevent abnormal withdrawals from bond of alcoholic liquor and tobacco in February and March. But this will not prevent some stock building by consumers.

note (5) page 28 In the first quarter of 1965, expenditure was lowered by deduction of a special receipt for work done for the European Launcher Development Organisation; and expenditure in the second quarter was raised by unusually high terminal payments for aircraft.

note (1) page 29 See W. A. H. Godley and J. R. Shepherd, ‘Long-term growth and short-term policy’, National Institute Economic Review No. 29, August 1964, page 35.

note (2) page 29 The revisions derive from the 1965 National Insurance card count. The employment figures for the months since then are uncertain; but the end-1965 figure can be regarded as a minimum figure—it may be revised upwards, but it is unlikely to be revised downwards. Annual revisions to the employment figures have almost always been up, not down. In the past ten years, only one revision—that in 1958—was down, by a mere 12 thousand.

note (1) page 30 The labour force is defined in table 18 as the increase in the numbers available for employment which would occur, if in each age and sex group the same proportion of people offered themselves for work as in 1961.

note (2) page 30 See W. A. H. Godley and J. R. Shepherd, ‘Long-term growth and short-term policy’, National Institute Economic Review No. 29, August 1964, page 26; as amended by footnote (1), page 19 of National Institute Economic Review No. 33, August 1965.

note (1) page 31 This percentage includes school-leavers and the temporarily stopped.

note (2) page 31 Non-ferrous metals are included in semi-manufactures.

note (1) page 36 See ‘NIESR commodity price index numbers’, National Institute Economic Review No. 34, November 1965, page 98.

note (2) page 36 National Institute Economic Review No. 31, page 29; and No. 32, page 19.

note (1) page 38 National Institute Economic Review No. 32, page 18.

note (1) page 39 National Institute Economic Review No. 31, page 29; and No. 32, page 19.

note (2) page 39 The Economist, 8 January 1966, page 119.

note (3) page 39 National Institute Economic Review No. 34, page 35.