Chapter II. The Home Economy

Extract

The forecasts we have made for the UK economy during the past year have all shown not just the end of the current downturn, but a noticeable, if small, recovery in economic activity subsequently. On this occasion the profile differs (table 1); although the decline in GDP seems to have ended in the last quarter of 1980 there is now no forecast of a recovery before the end of 1982. As a result of upward revisions of data for the past the estimated decline in GDP in 1980 of 2.7 per cent and the forecast further decline of 1¼ per cent in 1981 are similar to those we published in November. The level of GDP suggested for 1981 is also little changed but its composition is different (table 2).