Chapter II. The World Economy

Extract

Our view of the world economy has on the whole changed very little since February. Fuller information tends to confirm our main estimates for 1971, in particular that real economic growth in the OECD countries was around 3¼ per cent and that the dollar value of world trade increased by just over 11 per cent (of which price changes accounted for rather less than half). And we still expect OECD growth in 1972 to be close to 5 per cent and the rise in dollar value of trade around 17 per cent, with prices and volume contributing fairly equally. It is, however, hard to say whether or not this assessment is supported by developments so far this year, as the course of both output and trade has been affected by strikes, and the relatively mild weather in Western Europe in the early months appears to have mitigated the normal seasonal fall on the Continent in output and employment.