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Chapter II. The World Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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The growth of US GNP, which in the first quarter was responsible for the greater part of an increase of the order of 1½ per cent in the output of the whole OECD area, slowed down somewhat in the second quarter but it was still exceptionally fast. With the help mainly of sustained growth in Japan it probably kept total OECD output growing, despite the depressing effects of major strikes in West Germany and the UK. The deceleration in the US mainly reflected a reduction in stockbuilding, which in the first quarter had made the biggest contribution to the growth of demand both there and in West Germany and France.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 109 , August 1984 , pp. 21 - 32
Copyright
Copyright © 1984 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

page 22 note (1) OECD, Economic Outlook 35, p.53.

page 26 note (1) The world discrepancy on current account, to which over estimates of the US deficit probably contribute, was sharply reduced in 1983 with the disappearance of special factors, mainly connected with the relative timing of imports and exports, which had pushed it up in 1982. It is expected to resume its normal upward trend as flows of invisibles expand.

page 27 note (1) In May 1981 the 3-month US Treasury Bill rate was at a peak of 16½-17 per cent compared with 10-10½ per cent lately. US inflation, as measured by the increase in consumer prices over the previous twelve months, was then 9½-10 per cent and is now only 4-4½ per cent. (It is, of course, arguable that it is expected rather than past price rises that are relevant in this context.)