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Chapter II. The World Economy
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
Extract
The general climate of opinion about the likely course of the world economy over the next two or three years has altered considerably during the last few months. Around the middle of the year it was not infrequently suggested that the very rapid rise in output in the first quarter was the prelude to a coming boom which would cause governments to slam on the brakes some time next year and thus produce a new recession in 1978. Anxieties about 1978 still persist, but since the extent of the slowing down in the growth of world output in the second quarter became apparent the basis of these anxieties has changed. The fear now is that the recovery may peter out without gaining sufficient momentum to generate the revival of business investment on which its continuation beyond 1977 largely depends.
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- Copyright © 1976 National Institute of Economic and Social Research
References
(1) Communiqué of the Tripartite Meeting on Domestic Economic Policy at the Brookings Institution on 3, 4 and 5 November.
(1) This figure is calculated, as are other prices and values in this section unless otherwise indicated, in terms of ‘new’ SDRs (that is a weighted average of currency values, see National Institute Economic Review, no. 69, August 1974, page 45). Statistical Appendix Table 24 gives rates.
(1) Oil and energy prospects in Western Europe are discussed in more detail in the article on pages 40-47.