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Chapter III. The Medium Term

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

Most users of medium-term economic forecasts turn to them because they want to know what the economic future will actually be like, so that they can plan accordingly. Further, a very wide range of alternatives will not be particularly helpful; and many users—given the uncertainties in any case inherent in deducing from a general economic forecast the prospects for an individual firm—prefer a single set of numbers for the medium-term economy.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 90 , November 1979 , pp. 35 - 63
Copyright
Copyright © 1979 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Notes

(page 35 note 1) The problem of rising prices, OEEC, May 1961.

(page 37 note 1) The Economist, January 5, 1974, page 15.

(page 38 note 1) For example, Arthur M. Okun has recently argued, about the United States, ‘When the Government pushed the economy into deep recession and prolonged slack, each dollar trimmed from GNP meant a loss of roughly 90 cents of output and a saving of about 10 cents on the price level. Any anti-inflationary proposal that relies solely on balancing the budget and tightening money is, in reality, a proposal for an encore of that experience.’ (The Brookings Bulletin, vol. 15, no. 4, Spring 1979, page 4). See also ‘Efficient Dis inflationary Policies’ American Economic Review Proceedings, May 1978, p. 348 et seq.

(page 38 note 2) OECD, Economic Outlook, July 1979, p. 5.

(page 42 note 1) OECD Economic Outlook, July 1979, page 25 et seq.

(page 42 note 2) E. F. Denison, ‘Explanations of Declining Productivity Growth’, Survey of Current Business, August 1979, part II.

(page 42 note 3) Labour force estimates and projections, 1950-2000, ILO Geneva, 1977.

(page 43 note 1) This estimate is obtained by combining with 1970 weights the figures given on varying definitions in table 7, page 25 of OECD Economic Outlook, July 1979.

(page 43 note 2) This point was discussed at some length in the National Institute Economic Review, November 1978, pages 16 et seq.

(page 43 note 3) S. A. B. Page, The managemevat of international trade, NIESR Discussion Paper 29, November 1979.

(page 47 note 1) For a fuller discussion, see National Institute Economic Review, August 1979, page 5.

(page 50 note 1) National Institute Economic Review, November 1978, Chapter II, ‘The Medium Term’.

(page 51 note 1) Clothing EDC, Progress Report 1979. The UK's share of OECD clothing exports was 9.2 per cent in 1977 compared with 6.9 per cent in 1975. The UK's share in total exports of manufactures between the same two years did not change.

(page 51 note 2) Daniel, W. W. and Stilgoe, E. ‘The impact of employment protection laws’, PSI Broadsheet no. 577, June 1979.

(page 51 note 3) ‘Labour turnover: manufacturing industries’, Depart ment of Employment Gazette, June, September, December 1978 and March 1979.

(page 52 note 1) Discussion of these issues is to be found in:

Salter, W. E. G., Productivity and technical change, Cam bridge University Press, 1966.

Kaldor, N. Causes of the slow rate of economic growth of the United Kingdom, Cambridge University Press, 1966.

Cripps, T. F. and Tarling, R. J. Growth in advanced capitalist economies 1950-1970, Cambridge University Press, 1973.

Rowthorn, R. E. ‘What remains of Kaldor's Law?’, Econo mic Journal, March 1975.

Kaldor, N. ‘Economic growth and the Verdoorn Law: a comment on Mr. Rowthorn's article’, Economic Journal, December 1975.

Stoneman, P. ‘Kaldor's Law and British economic growth 1800-1970’, Applied Economics, September 1979.

Parikh, A. ‘Differences in growth rates and Kaldor's Laws’, Economica, February 1978.

Wragg, R. and Robertson, J. ‘Post-war trends in employ ment’, Department of Employment Research Paper no. 3, 1978, London.

(page 52 note 2) Op. cit., page 76.

(page 52 note 3) Bank of England, Quarterly Bulletin, Vol. 18, no. 3, September 1978.

(page 53 note 1) I. Barron, and R. Curnow, The future with micro electronics, Frances Pinter Ltd., London, 1979.

(page 54 note 1) D. T. Jones, ‘Output, employment and labour productivity in Europe since 1955’, National Institute Economic Review, August 1976.

(page 54 note 2) Cambridge Economic Policy Review, April 1979, page 31.

(page 54 note 3) Cambridge Economic Policy Review, April 1979, Table B5.

(page 54 note 4) T. S. Barker, W. Peterson, and A. Winters, ‘Britain's three economic options’, Business Observer, London, 15 January 1978.

(page 56 note 1) These questions are discussed in Britain's trade and exchange-rate policy, edited by Robin Major, Heinemann Educational Books, 1979, summarised on pages 77-85, and De-industrialisation, edited by Frank Blackaby, Heinemann Educational Books, 1979.

(page 57 note 1) ‘The changed relationship between unemployment and vacancies’, Department of Employment Gazette, October 1976.

(page 57 note 2) Taylor, J. ‘A note on the comparative behaviour of male and female unemployment rates in the UK 1951-1976’, University of Lancaster, mimeo, 1977.

(page 57a note 3) Cubin, J. S., and Foley, K. ‘The extent of benefit-induced unemployment in GB: Some new evidence’, Oxford Economic Papers, 1977.

Maki, D., and Spindler, Z. ‘The effect of unemployment compensation on the rate of unemployment in GB’ Oxford Economic Papers, 1975.

Taylor, J. op. cit.

(page 57 note 4) Mackay, D., and Reid, G. ‘Redundancy, unemployment and manpower policy’, Economic Journal, 1972.

Nickell, S. ‘The effect of unemployment and related benefits on the duration of unemployment’, Economic Journal, 1979.

(page 59 note 1) A year ago it was assumed that the price of oil would reach $19.4 a barrel in 1985. (National Institute Economic Review, November 1978, page 19).

(page 61 note 1) The NIESR would like to thank Mr. James Morrell of the Henley Centre, Mr John Sheppard of the Economic Models Group of Companies and Dr. Terence Barker and Mr Martin Featherston of the Department of Applied Economics, Cambridge, for supplying information for this exercise.

(page 61 note 2) The full references are:—

NIESR : ‘The economy to 1980’, National Institute Economic Review, 71, February 1975.

HCF: ‘Britain in the 1980s’, The Henley Centre for Forecasting (ed. James Morrell), 1975.

EM: ‘Medium-term economic forecast for (inter alia) the United Kingdom’, International Quarterly Report, Economic Models Group of Companies, Vol. VI, January 1975.

CEPG: ‘Review of Britain's economic prospects, 1975- 78’, Chapter 1, Economic Policy Review, February 1975, no. 1, University of Cambridge, Depart ment of Applied Economics.

CGP: ‘Projecting alternative structures of the British economy’, T. S. Barker, Economics Reprint no. 6, 1976, University of Cambridge, Department of Applied Economics.