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Chapter III. The World Overseas

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

The outlook for world industrial production—and consequently in the long run for world trade-is, if anything, a little more cheerful than it was in November. The prospect is still that the rise in both will be slower than in recent years; but the risk that there might be no rise at all is much smaller than it was. First, the fears of any appreciable dip in the United States economy this year have largely evaporated. Then, for the second year running, industrial production in EEC countries, after apparently flattening off in the middle of the year, rose in the fourth quarter; this adds some confirmation to the forecast of a reasonable rise in EEC output next year.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 23 , February 1963 , pp. 33 - 42
Copyright
Copyright © 1963 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) The ‘leading indicators’—series which generally tend to predict turning points in output—were slowing down or falling early in 1962. But this was followed, as in 1956, not by a fall in output but by a period of stagnation. (See National Institute Economic Review, no. 21, August 1962, page 18.)

(1) Annual forum of the National Industrial Conference Board, reported in US News and World Report, January 7, 1963.

(1) ‘Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft, und der westdeutschen Wirtschaft um die Jahreswende 1962/1963’, Wirtschafts konjunktur, IFO Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Milnchen, IV, 1962.

(2) 164.2 million hours were lost through strikes in Italy in the first 10 months of 1962, compared with 59.1 million a year earlier.

(1) The National Institute indices shown in chart 20 incor porate over 100 quoted prices, weighted according to the pattern of trade in 1957. The Financial Times index of commodity prices uses 12 commodities, with equal weights; Reuter's uses 21 and Moody's 15—both have a rather anti quated weighting system. The Economist index uses 19 commodities weighted according to their share of world trade in 1958.

(1) Statistical Appendix table 25.