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Chapter IV. The World Overseas

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

1963 was a good year for world production and a very good year for world trade. Most industrial economies expanded quite strongly, and for the free world as a whole industrial production rose by about 5 per cent—not quite such a big rise as in 1962, but bigger than in 1961. The value of world trade increased very sharply, particularly in primary products : in the third quarter of 1963 trade was running at a level about 10 per cent higher than a year before, and there was probably another big rise in the fourth quarter.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 27 , February 1964 , pp. 42 - 60
Copyright
Copyright © 1964 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) University of Michigan Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, An econometric forecast of the economic outlook for 1964. A year ago the Seminar forecast a 3.1 per cent rise in gross national product (at constant prices) in 1963; the actual increase was 3.9 per cent.

(1) The rise in manufacturing production likely to accompany a 5 per cent increase in the gross national product (at constant prices) is itself uncertain. Over the past ten years both manufacturing production and the gross national product have risen by almost exactly a third, but in individual years changes have not paralleled each other very closely (table 28). Almost invariably manufacturing production has risen more than gross national product in boom years, and risen less (or fallen more) at times of recession.

(2) There is some evidence that the Soviet Union, too, moved closer to this mean, with a growth rate in 1963 of 4 or 5 per cent (The Economist, January 18th 1964, pages 188-9).

(1) EEC, Résultats de l'enquête de Conjoncture auprès des chefs d'entreprise de la Communauté.

(2) Italy measures unemployment in a different way from Britain, and so its figures are not directly comparable; but it is worth noticing that less people are now registered as unemployed in Italy than in Britain.

(1) Etudes et Conjoncture : Supplement no. 1, 1964.

(2) Joint Report of the German Research Institutes on the West German and world economic situation at the beginning of 1964.

(1) This comprises non-military Government grants, Govern ment loans less repayments, and private United States long- term investment overseas, less disinvestment, and excluding unremitted profits of subsidiaries.

(1) OECD Economic Surveys : United States, November 1963.

(1) The raw sugar price paid by Soviet countries for Cuban shipments has recently been raised to 6 cents (from the earlier 4 cents). This change has been introduced as from January 1 1964 in the NIESR price indices in Appendix Table 27.