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Chapter V. World Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

Last February we suggested that the aggregate volume of national output (GNP) of the member countries of OECD would rise in 1970 by 3 per cent and the dollar value of world trade by about 9 per cent. We now estimate that the rise in output was appreciably below our forecast, at about 2½ per cent, but that the rise in the value of world trade was probably as high as 15 per cent, which would mean that it was the biggest since the Korean War 20 years ago.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 55 , February 1971 , pp. 64 - 92
Copyright
Copyright © 1971 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Notes

note (1) in page 66 OECD, Economic Outlook, no. 8, December 1970, page 30.

note (1) in page 69 Council/Commission of the European Communities, ‘Interim report on the establishment by stages of economic and monetary union’, page 14.

note (1) in page 70 ‘Report to the Council and the Commission on the realisation by stages of economic and monetary union in the community’, October 1970, page 9.

note (1) in page 71 OECD, ‘Inflation, the present problem’, Paris, December 1970, page 15. Throughout this section the domestic price changes quoted are in terms of GNP deflators unless otherwise indicated.

note (2) in page 71 The countries omitted from this study were Greece, Ireland, Luxemburg, Portugal, and Turkey.

note (3) in page 71 OECD, op. cit., page 16. The eight major countries are those shown in chart 2, less Belgium.

note (1) in page 73 OECD, op. cit., page 19.

note (2) in page 73 OECD, op. cit., pages 72-4.

note (3) in page 73 The causes of inflation in the United Kingdom are dis cussed at length in Chapter III.

note (4) in page 73 OECD, op. cit., pages 19-22.

note (1) in page 75 Euromoney, February 1971, page 64.

note (2) in page 75 OECD, ‘The growth of output 1960-1980’, December 1970, page 39.

note (1) in page 76 OECD, Economic Outlook, No. 8, December 1970.

note (2) in page 76 OECD, ‘Inflation, the present problem’, Paris, December 1970, page 25.

note (1) in page 77 A. J. M. de Vries and D. J. van Walsem, ‘Prospects for 1971’, Bureau for Economic Research, University of Stellen bosch, page 38.

note (1) in page 82 A. J. M. de Vries and D. J. van Walsem, op. cit.

note (2) in page 82 This is on the basis of the equations Pa=-7.14+1.14y and Pm= −5.83 + 1.85y, where y is the annual change in world industrial production (of which OECD accounts for about 85 per cent) and P the annual change in commodity prices as measured by our index shown in Statistical appendix, table 23. These equations represent revised versions of those given in National Institute Economic Review no. 51, February 1970, page 70).

note (1) in page 85 Allowing for under-recording in the case of United Kingdom exports.

note (1) in page 86 Statistical appendix table 22 implies a rate of only about 13 per cent in the first half of the year but is based on published series which tend to be revised upwards for the latest periods.

note (1) in page 87 An account of the model is given in Frans Meyer-zu- Schloctern and Akira Yajima, ‘OECD Trade Model: 1970 Version’, OECD Economic Outlook, Occasional Studies, December 1970. The OECD Secretariat very kindly supple mented this with additional detail.

note (1) in page 88 See A. H. C. Broadbent, E. A. Anyanwu and N. Garganas, ‘Forecasting trade between OECD countries and primary producers’, National Institute Economic Review no. 52, May 1970, pages 46-51.