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The Economic Situation : Annual Review

Chapter I. 1963 to MID-1965

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

This chapter brings together a brief review of the economy in 1963 and a revised forecast of the trend of demand over the next eighteen months; it then looks in particular at the implications for the labour supply and the balance of payments; and finally it draws some conclusions about economic policy. The detailed justification of the individual forecasts is given in Chapter II.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 27 , February 1964 , pp. 4 - 12
Copyright
Copyright © 1964 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) The latest revisions to the estimates of gross domestic product from the expenditure side show a drop of only 1 per cent between the fourth quarter of 1962 and the first quarter of 1963; the previous set of estimates showed a drop of 1 1/2 per cent.

(2) Consumers' expenditure on cars (seasonally adjusted) in the fourth quarter of 1962 was some 25 per cent above the average of the previous three quarters.

(1) In the July 1963 Economic Trends, public sector investment (at constant prices, seasonally adjusted) was shown as 4 1/2 per cent higher in 1962 than in 1961, and 9 1/2 per cent higher in the fourth quarter of 1962 than it had been a year earlier. In the October 1963 Economic Trends, the level and trend of these figures during 1962 was brought down sharply, so that the year-on-year change became 2 1/2 per cent instead of 4 1/2 per cent, and the fourth quarter on fourth quarter change became 4 1/2 per cent instead of 9 1/2 per cent.

(2) Since November, we have revised our views upwards about housing, and about investment in private industry other than manufacturing.

(3) The rise is not faster, partly because there was a once- and-for-all effect of the income tax reductions in the second half of 1963, and partly because of a slightly faster price-rise.

(1) On the basis of the national insurance card count, the June 1963 figures have been revised upwards by 0.7 per cent, or 176 thousand.

(2) This is briefly described in National Institute Economic Review, November 1963, page 13, footnote (1).

(1) There was a similar kind of development in 1960 and 1961. In 1960, the United Kingdom had a substantial deficit on current and long-term capital account; but, because of the inflow of short-term capital from the non-sterling world (a good deal of it in the form of sterling balances), this deficit did not lead to any fall in the reserves. The run on the reserves came in 1961, when the inflow of short-term capital was reversed.

(2) Swings in stockbuilding seem to have this effect, much more than swings in other forms of expenditure, because the import content of stockbuilding appears to be very much higher than the import content of total national expenditure.

(1) Including a ‘normal’ balancing item.

(1) National Institute Economic Review, February 1963, page 45.

(2) A year ago (National Institute Economic Review, February 1963) we argued that a stimulus of £400 million was needed. We underestimated the ‘natural’ rise in demand (page 6), and now, with hindsight, would agree that the actual stimulus given (of £280 million) was nearer the mark.

(3) National Institute Economic Review, November 1963, page 14.