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The Economic Situation: Chapter I. The Home Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

National output reached a temporary peak in the first quarter of 1966. It fell in the second quarter : one reason was that consumers, in anticipation of a stiff Budget, increased their spending before it and consequently reduced their spending after it. National output almost certainly fell again in the third quarter : the industrial production figures, the unemployment figures, and tentative expenditure estimates all point to this conclusion. Under the impact of the tax increases and the credit restrictions, consumers' expenditure in real terms seems to have fallen about 1¾ per cent, or £85 million (at 1958 prices). Judging from the unemployment figures, output can hardly have risen in the fourth quarter.

Type
Research Article
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 38 , November 1966 , pp. 4 - 22
Copyright
Copyright © 1966 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Notes

note (1) page 4 The industrial production figures for July and August were high: because of the seamen's strike, they may have included items which were produced in the second quarter, but were not exported and consequently not “delivered” until the third quarter. Then there was a sharp drop in September. The three figures are best taken together, with some allowance for a transfer of output from the second to the third quarter.

note (1) page 6 There are to be some increases in employers' contributions during 1967, the effect of which might be to raise the con sumer price index by 0.2 per cent.

note (2) page 6 Company profits, net of stock appreciation, were 11 per cent of total fixed sales in 1958, 10 1/4 per cent in 1962, and 91/2 per cent in the first half of 1966

note (1) page 9 It is now suggested that ‘it seems reasonable to assume that the normal value of the recurrent element of the balancing item is around +£50 million’ (United Kingdom Balance of Payments, 1966).

note (2) page 9 ‘The decisions arising from our review of defence will do more than slow down an increase. They will bring about a reduction in the burden. At first there will be some increase, because to cut overseas defence you incur extra costs in the process of terminating commitments. But from 1968 onwards we can look forward to reductions in overseas expenditure as a result of the Government's review.’ (Chancellor of the Exchequer, Cardiff, 9 September 1966.)

note (1) page 10 Statistical Appendix, table 23.

note (1) page 11 See the argument in ‘The Arithmetic of the Long-term Balance of Payments Problem’, National Institute Economic Review No. 33, August 1965, page 18.

note (2) page 11 The method of eliminating the indirect tax content is described in the footnote to the chart. The movement of import prices will have affected the different categories in various ways; but, in aggregate, import prices in 1965 were no higher than in 1955.

note (1) page 12 The housing programme, 1965 to 1970, Cmnd. 2638, HMSO, 1965.

note (2) page 12 A Bill was introduced in the last Parliament, but had to be abandoned because of the election.

note (1) page 13 Because of the economic policy measures announced in the summer, a supplementary inquiry was undertaken. Consequently the results reflect industry's views at the end of September whereas normally the forecasts are made a few weeks earlier.

note (1) page 14 This is the exports of goods figure in the balance of pay ments table: table 3, page 8, of this Review, and table 4, page 9, of August 1966.

note (1) page 15 Statistical Appendix, table 17.

note (1) page 17 It seems quite possible that the estimates for the wage and salary bill in 1966 will at some time be revised upwards. The rise seems very slow, in relation to other evidence about average earnings; and the ‘income’ estimate of the movement of national output has in the first half of this year shown a much smaller rise than the other two estimates (Economic Trends, October 1966, page ii).

note (2) page 17 Normally, the consumers' price index rises rather more slowly than the retail prices index. During 1965 however— between the fourth quarter of 1964 and 1965-both indices rose by about the same amount. This was probably an oddity of that particular year; for the forecast, we have assumed that consumer prices rise about four-fifths as fast as retail prices.

note (3) page 17 The new graduated contributions may add some £28 million to employers' payments of national insurance con tributions in 1967 compared to 1966; and the redundancy levy may cost them some £20 million more next year than this. Increases of this order would normally be expected to raise the consumers' price index by 0.2—0.3 per cent.

note (1) page 19 Since it was expenditure on cars and tobacco which fell in the third quarter, a good part of the drop shows in the adjust ment to factor cost (table 1).

note (1) page 20 There were price falls for cotton, copper, beef, lamb, sugar, cocoa, hides, rubber, tea, wool, United States cotton, hemp, jute, bacon, sisal, linseed oil, tin, lead, and Brazilian coffee. See Statistical Appendix, table 27.

note (1) page 22 The figure excludes liabilities resulting from Central Bank assistance.