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The Economic Situation
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
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The latest economic indications—which scarcely go beyond March-show demand and production continuing to expand rapidly. The main questions now are how far the growth of demand will be modified by the Budget and the new credit restrictions, and how the prospects for the balance of payments are developing.
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- Copyright © 1960 National Institute of Economic and Social Research
References
note (1) page 4 If the tax had not been raised, tobacco consumption would have risen, perhaps by about 4 per cent, or £40 million, and three-quarters of this increase would have gone in tax. In the Institute's view, the increase in price will have an effect on consumption, which may not now go up at all this year; in this event consumers will pay an extra £40 million, all of which will go in tax, for about the same quantity of tobacco. The net effect of the change in tax, on this reckoning, is £10 million a year in additional revenue, and not £40 million, as given in the Financial Statement.
note (2) page 4 For Scottish banks the figure is only ½ per cent.
note (3) page 4 National Institute Economic Review, no. 8, March 1960, table 1, page 7.
note (1) page 6 This is the average change in hourly rates and thus includes the effect of reductions in the standard week.
note (2) page 6 The Pilkington award will increase doctors' incomes by £11 million a year, with an additional £30 million back-pay this year.
note (1) page 8 Board of Trade Journal, 13 May 1960, table 1a, page 1032.
note (2) page 8 ‘It is unlikely that the net increase in hire-purchase debt will be nearly so large this year as last and this will damp down the rise in total consumer demand. I do not expect the rate of increase in consumer demand from now onward to be as rapid as it was during 1959.’ Chancellor of the Exchequer, Hansard, 4 April 1960.
note (1) page 11 National Institute Economic Review, no. 7, January 1960, page 10, table 3.
note (2) page 11 Appendix table 2. Since consumption of these goods (seasonally adjusted) appears to have been rising (page 7), this suggests that stocks, which were built up during last year, may have been falling in the first quarter.
note (3) page 11 National Institute Economic Review, no. 7, January 1960, page 11.
note (1) page 12 National Institute Economic Review, no. 7, January 1960, page 28.
note (1) page 14 G. F. Ray, ‘British Imports of Manufactured Goods’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 8, March 1960, pages 12-29.
note (1) page 16 Last autumn, a survey of industry's investment intentions showed a likely rise of 10 per cent in 1960; a further survey in January and February suggested 14 per cent, and the latest survey, in late March and early April, 16 per cent. This last survey was conducted when industry was already aware of the slackening in output and of rather disappointing first quarter profits figures; company profits in the first quarter were 5 per cent higher than a year earlier, but they fell short of the high figure in the second quarter of 1959.
note (1) page 18 In Western Germany, for instance, the metal-workers union is claiming 10 per cent for 1 million workers.
note (2) page 18 However, the effect of these measures is likely to be more psychological than directly restrictive, partly because the banks have even now been left with about double the liquidity ratio they had in the autumn of 1955 and partly because their ample holdings of short-term foreign assets, now rising again, can at any time be sold to the Bundesbank in exchange for Deutschmarks.
note (3) page 18 This is probably part of the unidentified net inflow shown in the United States balance of payments, table 17, page 17.
note (1) page 19 Appendix table 24.