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The Economic Situation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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National output, which went up some 7 per cent in the course of 1963, seems likely to rise less than half as fast as this, by about 3 per cent, during 1964—in spite of a continued upsurge in fixed investment. Apart from the expected import increase, this slowingdown can be explained mainly by two things: the failure of exports to rise, and a large increase in consumer prices. Exports have actually been falling this year; the volume of exports of goods and services in the third quarter was just over 2 per cent lower than at the end of 1963 (table 1), and the value in October of exports of goods alone showed virtually no change from the third quarter average.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 30 , November 1964 , pp. 4 - 29
Copyright
Copyright © 1964 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Note (1) page 4 Since the August Review, which gave an estimate of an overall deficit around £500 million (including a ‘normal’ balancing item of some £60 million), there have been further bad export figures. Moreover, the August estimate deliber ately took a more optimistic view whenever possible, since the argument was that even on optimistic assumptions some thing would have to be done about the balance of payments before the end of the year.

Note (2) page 4 See W. A. H. Godley and J. R. Shepherd, ‘Long-term growth and short-term policy’, National Institute Economic Review No. 29, August 1964, page 26.

Note (3) page 4 In September the normal, or standard, working week was a quarter of an hour shorter than a year earlier.

Note (4) page 4 Last year, by this time, this estimate was available; it raised the estimate of employment in June 1963 by 170 thousand.

Note (1) page 5 The final column of table 2 shows a very slight deflation ary effect up to the end of the first quarter of 1965, and a very slight inflationary effect thereafter. But the figures are too small to matter—never in any quarter amounting to more than one-seventh of one per cent of the gross domestic product.

Note (2) page 5 It appears that the proposals for increased contributions from employers and insured persons, plus the extra Exchequer contribution, will exceed by around £50 million what will be currently required to pay the increased benefits. This extra provision anticipates the result of the next Quinquennial Review of the insurance scheme, under which—presumably— increased contributions would anyway have been required to meet future benefits on'actuarial ‘grounds.

Note (1) page 8 In quantifying these price effects allowance must be made for some small reduction in savings as a consequence.

Note (1) page 9 This figure of £200-250 million allows for some substitution of ‘free’ imports for surcharged imports.

Note (2) page 9 The figures in the table are at 1958 prices; but there was not much difference in the price level of imports between 1958 and 1965.

Note (1) page 11 Including the normal balancing item.

Note (1) page 12 The contrast with German experience is striking. In Germany, the export share of manufacturing output has been slowly but steadily increasing. From 1958 to 1963, the volume of German exports of manufactures rose 54 per cent, while the volume of manufacturing output rose only 37 per cent.

Note (1) page 14 Statistical Appendix table 5.

Note (1) page 15 J. R. Shepherd, ‘The FBI industrial trends enquiry’, National Institute Economic Review, November 1963, chart 5, page 69.

Note (1) page 16 National Institute Economic Review No. 25, August 1963, page 9.

Note (2) page 16 It is worth noting the changes in the personal savings ratio-that is, the ratio of personal savings to personal disposable incomes-between the official estimates of October 1963 and October 1964 (Economic Trends). This point is discussed in the National Institute Economic Review No. 24, May 1963, page 11, table 6.

Note (1) page 18 The published food import prices index includes a very big fall in the import price of sugar. This is not a ‘real’ fall, in the sense that the actual price of sugar imported into this country does not move in this way. Excluding this spurious sugar effect, the food import price index shows an appreciable rise this year.

Note (2) page 18 Theexample taken is of a household with an adult male wage-earner, earning about £18 a week, and one other sub sidiary earner bringing in about £5 a week, and one dependent child.

Note (3) page 18 Here including the effect of the fall in world sugar prices.

Note (4) page 18 See J. R. Shepherd,’ The FBI industrial trends enquiry’, National Institute Economic Review, No. 26, November 1963, page 63.

Note (1) page 19 See W. A. H. Godley and J. R. Shepherd, ‘Long-term growth and short-term policy’, National Institute Economic Review, No. 29, August 1964, page 26.

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