Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-8bhkd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-16T03:50:45.777Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Errors in National Institute Forecasts for the World Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

S. A. B. Page
S. A. B. Page*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Previous articles(1) have examined the record of the National Institute's forecasts for the United Kingdom economy. This article assesses its forecasts for the economy of the world as a whole.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 68 , May 1974 , pp. 65 - 76
Copyright
Copyright © 1974 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

page 65 note (1) R. R. Neild and E. A. Shirley, ‘Economic Review: an assessment of forecasts, 1959-60’, National Institute Economic Review No. 15, May 1961; M. C. Kennedy, ‘How well does the National Institute forecast?’, National Institute Economic Review No. 50, November 1969; and R. L. Major and M. J. C. Surrey, ‘Errors in National Institute forecasts of the balance of payments’, National Institute Economic Review No. 52, May 1970.

page 65 note (2) Adjusted figures are shown in the tables in italics. The basis of the adjustments is explained in Appendix I.

page 65 note (3) For GNP, commodity prices, imports and exports the naive method was to assume that the percentage change would be the same as in the preceding year. For current balances it was based on the assumption of no change from the preceding year's outcome.

page 67 note (1) National Institute forecasts for the World Economy, unlike those for the United Kingdom, which assume unchanged policies, are intended to indicate what will actually happen after taking account not only of what is expected on current policies but also of the likely government response to events. OECD forecasts apparently assume unchanged policies, as do EEC forecasts, which are scrupulously separated from policy recommendations.

page 74 note (1) F. Meyer-zu-Schlochtern and A. Yajima, ‘OECD trade model, 1970 version’, OECD Economic Outlook, Occasional Studies, December 1970.