The Impact of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Imbalances on the UK Economy

Abstract

Government expenditure has been rising rapidly as a proportion of GDP in recent years, and has risen from 39.5 per cent in 2002 to 40.9 per cent in 2003 and 2004 and is anticipated to rise to 41.5 per cent in 2005. Around two thirds of this increase in spending is projected to be on current consumption, whilst one third is on net investment. Between the first and the last of these fiscal years we project that the government deficit, as defined by Public Sector Net Borrowing, will have also increased by 1 per cent of GDP. During that period we expect that the output gap will have closed, and hence the deterioration in the public finances must be seen as a consequence of the policy actions of the Government and not as a result of the economic cycle. These policy actions will have contributed to the current unbalanced state of the economy, where we have strong growth and high government borrowing along with a poor and deteriorating current account.