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Natural Resources

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

George F. Ray
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Abstract

Energy is a world issue and since future developments, particulary of oil, are of paramount importance to the UK economy, we have to take a world view. We start by discussing the prospects of the supply and price of oil; the outlook for other types of primary energy as well will be considered briefly.

Type
Research Article
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 118 , November 1986 , pp. 53 - 58
Copyright
Copyright © 1986 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) This view is supported by the projections of the International Energy Agency. In their recent report on ‘Energy policies and programmes of IEA countries—1985 review’ published in 1986—which could not have taken account of the steep fall of the oil price early in 1986—they summed up their projections, usually based on country submissions, as follows;

Average annual rates of change:

(1) The static lifetime of the major industrial countries, in years and in terms of table 2, was at the end of 1985 as follows: US 12, Germany 13, France 6, Italy 18, UK 16½, Japan 14, Canada 38, and Netherlands (a major exporter) 26. The static life of reserves in Norway is 86 years.

(1) In 1973, around 50 per cent of all food was home produced; in the two years 1983 and 1984 this proportion was 62 per cent. If tropical and subtropical food is excluded, UK agriculture produced some 63 per cent in 1973 of all those foods that can be produced domestically, given the climatic conditions; this share rose to 81 per cent by 1984. (These estimates are based on current food prices. Source: Annual Abstract of Statistics.)

(2) The share of food, and also that of basic materials, fell markedly in the past ten years:

In percentage of all imports, at current prices:

In volume terms the direction of the change is similar but the fall is smaller.

(3) For example as compared with 1973, per capita consumption of butter has recently been one quarter, of imported canned fruit one third, of cocoa powder one half lower.

(4) For example, in 1982-3 (average of two years) average yields of wheat were 35 per cent higher than in 1973-4; the same increase for barley was 19 and for sugarbeet 41 per cent.

(5) In 1934-8 the average grain yield was 1.15 tonnes per hectare in both the industrial countries and the LDCs; in 1981-3 it was 2.67 tonnes in industrial countries and 2.01 tonnes in LDCs.

(6) The UK as a consumer has always had a certain importance in the world food markets, but in the case of two commodities British purchases are decisive: sugar and tea. The bulk of the UK's sugar imports from outside the EEC comes from Asian, Caribbean and Pacific countries (mostly Commonwealth ones) under special arrangements; we assume that this will continue, securing sugar supplies at a stable price that is independent of the vagaries of the world market. No difficulty is envisaged in the supply of tea either, although its price may fluctuate.

(1) For more detailed discussion, see ‘Mineral reserves’, Resources Policy, June 1984, pp 75-80, and ‘The contribution of science and technology to the supply of industrial materials’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 92, May 1980, pp 33-52, both by G. F. Ray.