Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-ndw9j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-15T09:39:19.481Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Role of Macroeconomic Models in the Policy Design Process

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Extract

This note examines the role of macroeconomic models in the policy design process. It discusses some of the general issues that need to be addressed if macroeconomic models are to make an important contribution to the policy debate. More topically, it illustrates the role that can be played by using policy optimisation techniques on the National Institute UK model to examine some of the macroeconomic policy options currently facing policymakers.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 1995 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Backus, D. and Driffill, J. (1985), ‘Rational expectations and policy credibility following a change in regime’, Review of Economic Studies, 52, pp. 211222.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrell, R., Britton, A. and Pain, N. (1994), ‘When the time was right: the UK experience of the ERM’ in UK Monetary Upheavals (ed. D.Cobham), Manchester University Press.Google Scholar
Barro, R. and Gordon, D. (1983), ‘Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, pp. 101121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchard, O. and Fisher, S. (1990), Lectures in Macroeconomics, MIT Press.Google Scholar
Blake, A.P. and Westaway, P.F. (1993), ‘Should the Bank of England be independent?’, National Institute Economic Review, February, No. 143, pp. 7280.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blake, A.P. and Westaway, P.F. (1994), ‘Targeting inflation with nominal interest rates’, National Institute Discussion Paper No. 70.Google Scholar
Blake, A.P. and Westaway, P.F. (1995a), ‘An analysis of the impact of finite horizons on macroeconomic control’, forthcoming, Oxford Economic Papers, also published as National Institute Discussion Paper No. 11.Google Scholar
Blake, A.P. and Westaway, P.F. (1995b), ‘The calculation of optimal policies on non-linear models when the open-loop derivatives are unobtainable’, mimeo NIESR.Google Scholar
Bray, J., Kuleshov, A., Uysal, A.E. and Walker, P. (1993), ‘Balance achieving policies on four UK models: a comparative policy optimisation study’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 9(3), pp. 6982.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Britton, A.J. and Pain, N. (1992), ‘Economic forecasting in Britain’, National Institute Report No. 5.Google Scholar
Church, K., Mitchell, P., Smith, P. and Wallis, K.F. (1994), ‘Comparative properties of models of the UK economy’, National Institute Economic Review, No. 146, August.Google Scholar
Committee on Policy Optimisation (R.J. Ball, Chairman) (1975), Report, CMND 7148, LondonHMSO.Google Scholar
Currie, D. and Levine, P. (1985), ‘Simple macroeconomic policy rules in an open economy’, Economic Journal, 85, pp. 6070.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Esrc (1994), A Report by the Consortium to the Programmes Board: Round 4 Funding of the Macroeconomic Modelling Programme.Google Scholar
Hall, S.G. (1993), ‘Modelling the sterling effective exchange rate using expectations and learning’, Manchester School, (Supp.), pp. 270286.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
HM Treasury (1994), Medium Term Financial Strategy Chapter 2, in Financial Statement and Budget Report, November, London, HMSO.Google Scholar
Kydland, F.E. and Prescott, E.C. (1978), ‘Rules rather than discretion: the inconsistency of optimal plans’, Journal of Political Economy, 85: pp. 473–92.Google Scholar
National Institute of Economic and Social Research (1994), National Institute Model 12, December.Google Scholar
Oulton, N. (1995), ‘Do UK price indexes overstate inflation?’, mimeo, NIESR.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pain, N., Young, G. and Westaway, P.F. (1993), ‘The state of the public finances’, National Institute Economic Review, August, No. 145, pp. 2942.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pain, N., Young, G. and Westaway, P.F. (1994), ‘Public sector borrowing over the cycle and in the long term’, The Business Economist, 25, pp. 520.Google Scholar
Rogoff, K. (1985), ‘The optimal degree of commitment to an intermediate monetary target’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 100, pp. 11691189.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romer, P. (1986), ‘Increasing returns and long run growth’, Journal of Political Economy, 98, pp. 1002–37.Google Scholar
Weale, M., Blake, A.P., Christodoulakis, N., Meade, J. and Vines, D. (1989), Macroeconomic Policy: Inflation, Wealth and the Exchange Rate, London, Unwin Hyman.Google Scholar
Westaway, P.F. (1989), ‘Partial credibility: a solution technique for econometric models’, National Institute Discussion Paper No. 157.Google Scholar
Westaway, P.F. (1992a), ‘To devalue or not to devalue: An analysis of UK exchange rate policy in the ERM’, National Institute Discussion Paper No.16.Google Scholar
Westaway, P.F. (1992b), ‘A forward-looking approach to learning in macroeconomic models’, National Institute Economic Review, May, No. 140, pp. 8697.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Westaway, P.F. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1990), ‘Forecasting government policy: an example of the importance of time inconsistency’, International Journal of Forecasting.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Westaway, P.F. and Wren-Lewis, S. (1993), ‘Is there a case for the MTFS?’, Manchester School, 61, 3, pp. 227247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Whitley, J.D. (1994), A Course in Macromodelling Modelling and Forecasting, Harvester Wheatsheaf.Google Scholar
Wren-Lewis, S., Westaway, P.F., Soteri, S. and Barrell, R. (1991) ‘Choosing the rate: an analysis of the optimum level of entry for sterling into the ERM’, Manchester School, (Supp.), November.Google Scholar
Young, G. (1994), ‘The UK economy’, National Institute Economic Review, No. 150, November.CrossRefGoogle Scholar