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Section II. The forecast in detail
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
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We have argued that the base rate should be reduced once again, as a precautionary measure. If the economic situation improves as our forecast suggests, then the reduction is likely to prove short-lived and we would expect it to be reversed in the Spring of next year. But this interest rate reduction would be a useful precautionary measure should the outlook for trade and investment continue to deteriorate. Ten-year interest rates have been rising from the low values in the first quarter of this year. The interest rate reduction we propose would be expected to give the yield curve its traditional upward slope; if rates are raised again the curve should then level off.
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- Copyright © 2001 National Institute of Economic and Social Research
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