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The UK Economy
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
Extract
The economic recovery in the UK has now been under way for some eighteen months or so. Although the recovery has thus lasted almost as long as the recession, whole economy output has not yet returned to the pre-recession peak attained in the first half of 1990 (see Chart 1). Recent data and business surveys indicate that the pace of recovery remains moderate, with growth broadly in line with trend levels of 2–2 1/2 per cent per annum. We continue to expect that growth will accelerate a little in the coming months, reflecting the gradual response of the economy to the relaxation in monetary policy over the last two years.
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- Copyright © 1993 National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Footnotes
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The forecast was compiled using the latest version of the National Institute Domestic Econometric Model. This has been fully re-estimated to take account of the main changes arising from the introduction of the 1992 Standard Industrial Classification and the rebasing of the UK National Accounts on the year 1990. I am grateful to Andrew Britton, Ray Barrell, Andy Blake, Paul Gregg, Peter Westaway and Garry Young for helpful comments and discussions and to Florence Hubert for her help with the database and the charts. The forecast was completed on 5 November 1993.
References
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