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Appendix I. Forecasting Equations Using the FBI Balances

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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National Institute Economic Review , Volume 26 , November 1963 , pp. 75 - 77
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Copyright © 1963 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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page 75 note (1) The numerical estimates obtained depend on whether B or X is taken as the dependent variable. Since presumably both the balance and the index are subject to random error as compared with the ‘true’ movement in output, neither is a theoretically correct method of estimating the assumed relationship. For a forecasting equation it seems appropriate to choose the method which would have led to the best ‘forecasts’ in the past.