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Architects as Nowcasters of Housing Construction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Mark J. Holmes ,
James Mitchell  and
Brian Silverstone
Mark J. Holmes*
Affiliation:
University of WaikatoHamiltonNew Zealand
James Mitchell*
Affiliation:
NIESRLondonUnited Kingdom
Brian Silverstone*
Affiliation:
University of Waikato and NZIER Research AssociateHamiltonNew Zealand
*
E-mail: holmesmj@waikato.ac.nz
E-mail: j.mitchell@niesr.ac.uk
E-mail: silver@mngt.waikato.ac.nz
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Abstract

For more than four decades, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) has conducted a two-question, quarterly survey of architect forecasts of public and private sector construction expenditure. This qualitative survey is published one week after the end of each quarter and nine weeks ahead of the official quantitative data thereby giving architect opinion nowcasting status. This paper covers selected aspects of this unexplored series with particular reference to residential housing construction and the value-added information from architects as nowcasters. Specifically, we consider several qualitative-to-quantitative conversion methods, in-sample and out-of-sample performance, cyclical features and respondent dynamics. Although our work relates to architects — a sub-sector of the service industry — our results have a wider application to business survey questions using ordered qualitative responses.

Keywords

Nowcastingreal-timearchitectsqualitative-to-quantitative conversionbusiness surveyshousing constructionC83E37
Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 210 , October 2009 , pp. 111 - 122
Copyright
Copyright © 2009 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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