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Chapter I. The Home Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

Since last November we have based our forecasts on the assumption that the UK will soon become a full member of the European Monetary System. There has been no change in the official position on entry to confirm or correct that assumption, but recent hints and rumours make clear that it is the right assumption to make. We retain it for this forecast. The actual date of entry is now more likely to be in the first half of next year; a fall in the rate of inflation is seen as a precondition, and it is one which may not now be fulfilled as soon as we had hoped. We assume that some announcement on the ERM is made about the end of the year, permitting an interest-rate cut in the first quarter, followed by formal accession by the second quarter, about the time of the Budget.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 132 , May 1990 , pp. 9 - 24
Copyright
Copyright © 1990 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

The forecasts were prepared by Bob Anderton, Andrew Britton, and Paul Gregg, but they draw on the work of the whole team engaged in macroeconomic analysis and modelbuilding at the Institute. Parts One and Two of the chapter were written by Andrew Britton, Part Three by Bob Anderton.