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Chapter I. The Home Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

Since we last reported in February, oil prices have fallen further and there has been a mildly expansionary Budget. The chapter begins with some discussion of how prospects have been changed by these two developments, and also how our assessment of the current position may have been changed by the latest figures. The forecast is then presented, first in summary and then in more detail.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 116 , May 1986 , pp. 5 - 18
Copyright
Copyright © 1986 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(note 1 in page 5) So far as the Exchequer is concerned, this is of course a question of fiscal policy. As usual, our main forecast is based on the assumption of constant (indexed) tax rates and allowances.

(note 2 in page 5) The forecast assumes that 130 million tonnes will be produced this year and 125 million tonnes in 1987. These are towards the upper end of the range of estimates given in this year's Brown Book.

(note 3 in page 5) It is intended that the increase in expenditure be financed from the Reserve, so that the planning total is unaltered. However for the current purpose we treat it as a policy change.

(note 1 in page 6) The expenditure estimate suggests a slower increase of 2½ per cent a year over the earlier period, while the output estimate suggests a faster increase of 4 per cent; 3¼ per cent is the average figure. There is not much conflict of evidence about the growth rate over the last three quarters of last year.

(note 1 in page 9) The volume of retail sales rose by over 1 per cent in the first quarter. Differences in seasonal adjustment as well as coverage are thought to be responsible for the divergence.

(note 1 in page 11) The DTI survey published last December indicated a fall of about 2 per cent. While more optimistic than this, our forecast is less optimistic than the CBI one, based on the results of its Industrial Trends survey, which shows an increase of 5 per cent between the first three quarters of 1985 and the first three quarters of 1986.

(note 1 in page 13) In 1984, 7¼ per cent of British exports of goods went to OPEC members, which is just fractionally higher than the average for all OECD countries.

(note 2 in page 13) See the discussion in the February Review, pp. 22-3.

(note 1 in page 14) The new figures were published too late for us fully to take them into account in the forecast. Thus, for example, the series for employment in table 6 does not incorporate all the revisions.

(note 1 in page 15) See this February's Review, pp. 13-14.