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Chapter II. Production and Employment
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
Extract
Usually the main question about employment at the beginning of the year in Britain has been: ‘How big an increase in demand will the available labour supply allow?’ This year the question is the other way round: ‘How big an increase in demand is needed to bring down unemployment to a more normal level?’
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- Copyright © 1963 National Institute of Economic and Social Research
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(1) Immigration was high in the first half of 1962; there seems to have been a rush to get in before the Act. It has certainly been lower since. The current rate of net immigration is probably 50-80 thousand—compared with about 170 thousand in 1961.
(2) Unemployment rose by 248 thousand between December and January of which 144 thousand was in the numbers of temporarily stopped. Excluding school-leavers, the number wholly unemployed rose by 85 thousand; the Ministry of Labour estimate the normal seasonal increase at 40 thousand. Here again there is a problem of seasonal adjustment; it may be that seasonal movements would be better estimated, not as an absolute figure, but as a percentage of the trend level. (See Seasonal adjustments on electronic computers, OECD, Paris 1961, page 62.) If the adjustment is made in this way the true increase in January is not out of line with that in previous months.
(1) This includes such items as electronic control equipment, computers, radar and navigational aids, radio and com munication equipment.
(2) In addition, some multi-product firms were occasionally found with capacity limitation for individual products.
(1) Statistical Appendix, table 3.
(2) This excludes trade between ECSC countries.
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