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Chapter II. The World Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

There was another substantial rise in output in industrial countries between the second and third quarters. But during the third quarter the deceleration of economic growth in the United States became more marked and showed signs of spreading to Canada and Western Europe. Developments have been broadly consistent with our August forecast and we still expect the aggregate national output of the industrial countries to be higher by about 4½ per cent in 1969 than it was in 1968 and to rise by another 3-4 per cent in 1970. It now looks as though we were rather too optimistic about prospects in the United States, where the increase is unlikely to exceed 3 per cent this year and may not reach 2 per cent in 1970. On the other hand growth in Western Europe is still tending to surpass expectations. Despite the Italian strikes it will probably be over 5½ per cent this year; and it may exceed 4½ per cent in 1970.

Type
Research Article
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 50 , November 1969 , pp. 24 - 39
Copyright
Copyright © 1969 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

note (1) page 24 On the general lines described in National Institute Economic Review no. 42, November 1967, page 31.

note (1) page 30 That is to say a given rate of increase in income in Japan's foreign markets (over the period 1951-66) tended to mean a proportionate rise in exports three times as high as the rise in imports accompanying a similar rate of increase in Japanese income. (See H. S. Houthakker and S. P. Magee ‘Income and Price Elasticity in World Trade,’ The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1969).

note (1) page 35 See National Institute Economic Review no. 33, August 1965, pages 33-34.

note (2) page 35 See National Institute Economic Review no. 49, August 1969, page 26.

note (1) page 39 See National Institute Economic Review no. 49, August 1969, page 32.