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The Economic Situation and Prospects

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

In 1958, for the second time since the war, Britain experienced a slight decline in demand and production. During the year the Government, whose policies for three years had aimed at checking demand so as to stop inflation, began to take steps to re-expand demand. These measures are still taking effect.

The purpose of this Review is to analyse the effects of the decline in demand on the economy, and to assess the prospects and problems of recovery.

Type
Research Article
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 1 , January 1959 , pp. 4 - 31
Copyright
Copyright © 1959 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

note (1) page 5 A more detailed analysis of this trend will appear in an early number of this Review.

note (1) page 8 The Coal Board stated on January 6th, 1959 that oil consumption where coal could be used rose by an amount equivalent to about 9 million tons of coal between 1956 and 1958. Owing to the Suez crisis, the change took place almost entirely in 1958.

note (1) page 9 Development in the Steel Industry. Iron and Steel Board, Special Report, 1957.

note (2) page 9 The estimate of the normal rate of scrapping has been based on the long-term experience of a sample of firms : T. Barna, On Measuring Capital, (to be published).

note (3) page 9 The depreciated value of assets is now only about half as great as their gross replacement value. On the other hand, there is a much smaller difference between the two estimates of the annual additions to the stock of capital, principally because the rate of scrapping has been much slower than the rate of depreciation. Hence the upward bias in the first method. The second method understates the growth of capacity because it does not allow sufficiently for the superiority and more intensive use of new capital,

note (1) page 10 The Institute interviewed in July 1958 51 firms in the metal-using industries (except shipbuilding), which accounted for 10 per cent of total employment in these industries, and followed up these interviews at the beginning of November. In addition 13 firms in the chemicals, rubber and paper industries were interviewed.

note (2) page 10 The estimates in table 6 are based on normal rates of scrapping.

note (3) page 10 The Institute's sample for the metal-using industries showed an average of 20 per cent in July and little change in November. Over-representation of the motor car trade and under-representation of sub-contractors, who suffered most, suggest that this figure may be on the low side.

note (1) page 11 The rank correlation coefficient between output and productivity changes between 1955 and the second quarter of 1958 for the 14 groups shown is 0.75, which is highly significant.

note (2) page 11 The manufacturers in the metal-using industries whom we questioned expected that, on the average, they could produce 10 per cent more by working 3 per cent longer hours and employing 3 per cent more labour. But they thought they could bring their output to full capacity and produce 20 per cent more with 7 per cent more labour.

note (1) page 13 See Trends in International Trade, G.A.T.T., Geneva, 1958, paragraphs 119 to 128.

note (1) page 16 See Appendix table 20 and article on page 32.

note (1) page 20 See page 32.

note (1) page 22 The proportion of hire purchase sales to total sales of new motor cars is only 20 per cent, but would probably be about twice as high if business purchases were excluded.

note (2) page 22 See J. R. N. Stone and D. A. Rowe : ‘Dynamic Demand Functions : Some Econometric Results,’ Economic Journal, vol. LXVIII, no. 270, June 1958.

note (1) page 25 There was a rise in real investment in plant and machinery in the third quarter of 1958; but that was entirely due to the iron and steel industry which tends to speed up its disburse ments before the end of its accounting year in September.

note (1) page 30 The City's total invisible earnings from abroad were officially estimated at £125 million in 1956. A private estimate put the figure at nearer £150 million. Of this larger total, however, £70 million was attributed to insurance earnings, which are unlikely to be affected significantly by convertibility, and £15—£20 million was attributed to shipping brokerage, which is also unlikely to benefit much. The remaining items, more likely to be affected by convertibility, were merchanting (£30 million), and banking (£25—£30 million). Earnings from foreign exchange dealing were estimated at £2—£3 million and earnings from the bullion market at £1/4 million. See William M. Clarke, The City's Invisible Earnings, The Institute of Economic Affairs, 1958, especially page 93.