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The Economic Situation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

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Extract

The July measures were followed by a halt to the increase in the gross domestic product and almost certainly by a slight down-turn. So far there is no indication of significant change in the balance of payments situation since the second quarter, although the measures halted speculation against sterling and have been followed by a renewed inflow of foreign funds. The world economic environment now seems somewhat less favourable to an improvement in the United Kingdom's payments situation than it did in September, in spite of the recovery in the United States. The main reasons for a more cautious prognostication now lie in a pause in the economic expansion of western Europe; this has contributed to the weakness of commodity prices and is therefore limiting the prospects for expanding exports to primary producing countries.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 18 , November 1961 , pp. 4 - 18
Copyright
Copyright © 1961 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Note (1) page 4 Results summarised in Wirtschaftskonjunktur, October 1961.

Note (1) page 5 Communaute Economique Europeenne, La Situation Economique de la Communauté au Milieu de 1961.

Note (1) page 6 United States definition, which includes all short-term capital movements and unrecorded transactions.

Note (1) page 12 It may be that seasonal fluctuations in car purchase are becoming more marked; if so the adjustment used would be insufficient and therefore exaggerate the extent of the fall.

Note (1) page 18 R. R. Neild and E. A. Shirley, Economic Review : an assessment of forecasts, 1959-1960’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 15, May 1961.