No CrossRef data available.
Article contents
The Economic Situation
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
Abstract
This article discusses the world economy first, and attempts some forecast of movements in world production and trade between now and the middle of next year. Some assumption has to be made about the international political situation. We have assumed that the tension will not be heightened again and that consequently the effect on the world economy will not be substantial. If the tension were to be revived, then presumably Government expenditure on defence would rise, and there might be a burst of stock-building: the world prospect in general would be more inflationary than the one we outline below.
From this world picture, and from an analysis of Britain's competitive position, a view is deduced about Britain's exports and her balance of payments up to the middle of next year. The second section discusses how much expansion there is likely to be in the home economy, on present policies, between now and the middle of next year.
- Type
- Articles
- Information
- Copyright
- Copyright © 1962 National Institute of Economic and Social Research
References
(1) By the United States Department of Commerce and Securities Exchange Commission.
(1) An expert committee recently set up by the President to appraise American employment and unemployment statistics (the Gordon Committee) concluded that the high United States figure—compared, for instance, to the British—is only to a small extent explained by differences of definition. For instance, the Committee calculated that, as against the United States 1960 figure of 5.6 per cent unemployment, the British figure (which, on the British basis, was 1.6 per cent) would have been 2.4 cent on the American basis.
(2) This analysis is restricted to the Six, which account for some 86 per cent of Continental Western Europe's industrial production; and it concentrates particularly on France, Germany and Italy, which between them account for 75 per cent.
(1) National Institute Economic Review, no. 19, February 1962, chart 13, page 37. Review, no. 19, February
(1) For examining the relationship between industrial pro duction and primary product prices only, it is probably more sensible to use the normally-weighted index; for the markets for most of these commodities are world markets, and a fall in demand in the United States will have an effect on com modity prices even if it may have virtually no effect on world imports. But for working out the relationship between industrial production and the total value of exports of primary products, it may be better to use the index of production weighted by imports.
(1) According to the seasonally adjusted CSO estimates of wages and salaries there had already been a rise of 3.8 per cent by the second quarter, whereas our estimates would suggest a rise of only about 2 per cent in this period. The quarter-to- quarter movements of the CSO figures have been difficult to account for in the recent past and we have preferred to use estimates based on the alternative indicators.
(2) This refers to the 53 groups, covering a little over half of all wage earners, for which average wage movements are published from time to time in this Review (see, for example, No. 21, August 1962, table 6, page 10). It does not include any group for which there is a cost-of-living sliding scale, since the size of negotiated increases is not directly com parable with that for other groups. For this reason wage settlements in the third quarter for building and printing workers are not included in these averages.
(1) Judging from car registrations for July-September and from retail sales of durable goods shops in July-August. It was pointed out in the August 1962 Economic Review that the seasonal pattern of car sales has recently been changing. The official seasonal adjustments have now been revised and are very similar to the pattern suggested by the Institute.
(1) To be precise, firms expect to spend 10 per cent less in 1963 than they expected—a year ago—to spend in 1962. In the non-manufacturing group the out-turn for 1962 is likely to be 13 or 14 per cent below the original forecast. So there need not be any further fall to come; but as the forecasts for these industries have not been running very long, there is no basis of past experience on which adjustment could be made.
(2) Our figures, as given in Appendix table 17, reflect changes in the stocks of some 50 commodities only. They refer to stocks at certain levels and do not necessarily extend to all stocks held in this country.
(1) National Institute Economic Review, no. 19, February 1962, page 55 et seq., and no. 21, August 1962, page 11.