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European Energy Prospects

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

G.F. Ray
G.F. Ray*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
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Abstract

The 1975 reduction of energy consumption was chiefly due to the recession; plans and forecasts for 1975-80 indicate a return towards pre-1973 energy usage and the upward trend becomes moderated only in 1980-85. Europe's relative dependence on imported oil is likely to decline, due to increased production of North Sea oil and of nuclear electricity, as well as to the better utilization of other indigenous sources, though there are some uncertainties about these. Beyond 1985, however, new energy sources are likely to be needed; in order to secure them in time, R & D effort ought to be strengthened now, and on a cooperative international basis.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 78 , November 1976 , pp. 40 - 47
Copyright
Copyright © 1976 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) A list of them is given in the Appendix. The responsibility for the statements in this article remains, of course, the author's.

(1) Although the last months of 1973 were those of cutbacks and boycott by the Arab producers, consumption was prob ably little affected since most countries had sizeable stocks of oil and coal and those under boycott obtained supplies diverted to them.

(2) The BP Statistical Review of the World Oil Industry, 1975.

(3) The high price of energy naturally puts some pressure on all categories of consumers to reduce consumption. A more formal estimate of the price elasticity of demand is unlikely to be an acceptable guide since price changes prior to 1973 were of microscopic size as compared with the fivefold rise in the past three years.

(1) Increased energy economy and efficiency in the EEC region, United Nations, New York, 1976. (E/ECE/883/REV.1).

(2) Such changes could be: the introduction of industrial processes requiring less energy for the same output; the use of higher class basic materials; the preference given to materials and fabricated products with a smaller energy content; the better insulation of the existing stock of dwellings; the re-creation of public transport systems, which are more efficient in terms of energy needs than any private transport, etc.

(3) Non-conventional use of coal-for making synthetic gas or oil—is not included in these plans or forecasts. By 1985 this could become quite large.

(1) The future of nuclear energy in Sweden has become uncertain, depending on the stance the new government will take.

(1) See, among others, C. Robinson and J. Morgan, ‘World oil prices and the profitability of North Sea oil’, Petroleum Review, April 1976.

(2) An example of the latter concerns the huge new coal- mining complex at Selby, Yorkshire; a considerable part of the coal body is underneath the London-Edinburgh main inter-city railway line and if the loss of the millions of tons of coal affected is to be avoided (in view of the subsidence danger) it will be necessary to divert some 12-15 miles of the double track some 10 miles to the west at considerable capital outlay.

(1) The length of the closure dam on the Rance is 3/4 km.; that in the different alternative versions of the Dutch Delta plan varies between 4 1/2 and 8 km., in the British projects between 8 and 26 km.