Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-p9bg8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T19:17:51.958Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Fiscal Consolidation During a Depression

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Nitika Bagaria ,
Dawn Holland  and
John Van Reenen
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content.
Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
The World Economy
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 221 , July 2012 , pp. F42 - F54
Copyright
Copyright © 2012 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

∗

London School of Economics and Centre for Economic Performance. E-mails: n.bagaria@lse.ac.uk and J.Vanreenen@lse.ac.uk.

∗∗

E-mail: d.holland@niesr.ac.uk. The authors are grateful to Simon Kirby, who provided the details on the UK budget plans in table 1 that underlie all the scenarios in this note, as well as the UK forecast baseline reported in figures 9–11. We would also like to thank Angus Armstrong, Richard Layard and Jonathan Portes for useful discussion and comments on the modelling work and paper. All errors remain our own.

References

Auerbach, A.J.Gorodnichenko, Y. (2012), ‘Fiscal multipliers in recession and expansion”, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4(2), pp. 1–27.Google Scholar
Baldacci, E.Kumar, M. (2010), ‘Fiscal deficits, public debt and sovereign bond yields’, IMF Working Paper 10/184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ball, L.M. (1996), ‘Disinflation and the NAIRU’, NBER Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pp. 167–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrell, R.Fic, T.Liadze, I. (2009), ‘Fiscal policy effectiveness in the banking crisis’, National Institute Economic Review, 207.Google Scholar
Barrell, R.Holland, D.Hurst, A.I. (2012), ‘Fiscal consolidation Part 2: fiscal multipliers and fiscal consolidations’, OECD Economics Department Working Paper No. 933Google Scholar
Bernoth, K.Erdogan, B. (2012), ‘Sovereign bond yield spreads: a time-varying coefficient approach’, Journal of International Money and Finance, 31, pp. 639–56.Google Scholar
Blanchard, O.J.Diamond, P. (1994), ‘Ranking, unemployment duration and wages’, Review of Economic Studies, 61(3), pp. 417–34.Google Scholar
Calmfors, L.Lang, H. (1995), ‘Macroeconomic effects of active labour market programmes in a union wage-setting model’, Economic Journal, 105(430), pp. 601–19.Google Scholar
DeLong, J.B.Summers, L.H. (2012), ‘Fiscal policy in a depressed economy’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2012.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elsby, M.W.L.Smith, J.C. (2010), ‘The great recession in the UK labour market: a transatlantic perspective’, National Institute Economic Review, 214, p. R26.Google Scholar
Holland, D. (2012), ‘Reassessing productive capacity in the United States’, National Institute Economic Review, 220.Google Scholar
Ilzetzki, E.Mendoza, E.G.Végh, C.A. (2010), ‘How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?’, Centre for Economic performance Discussion Paper 1016.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
IMF (2012a), Fiscal Monitor Update, July.Google Scholar
IMF (2012b), United Kingdom 2012 Article IV Consultation, Country Report No. 12/190.Google Scholar
Laubach, T. (2009), ‘New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt’, Journal of the European Economic Association, 7, pp. 858–85.Google Scholar
Machin, S.Manning, A. (1999), ‘The causes and consequences of long term unemployment in Europe’, Handbook of Labour Economics, Vol. 3.Google Scholar
Manning, A. (1993), ‘Wage bargaining and the Phillips curve: the identification and specification of aggregate wage equations’, Economic Journal, 103(416), pp. 98–118.Google Scholar
Nickell, S.J. (1987), ‘Why is wage inflation in Britain so high?’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 49(1), pp. 103–28.Google Scholar
OECD (2009), ‘Adjustment to the OECD's method of projecting the NAIRU’, OECD Economics Department.Google Scholar
Schuknecht, L.von Hagen, J.Wolswijk, G. (2010), ‘Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited. The impact of the financial crisis’, European Central Bank Working Paper, No. 1152.Google Scholar