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The GDP fan charts: an empirical evaluation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Kevin Dowd
Kevin Dowd*
Affiliation:
Centre for Risk and Insurance Studies, Nottingham University Business School
*
e-mail: Kevin.Dowd@Nottingham.ac.uk
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Abstract

This paper evaluates the probability density forecasts reflected in the Bank of England's real GDP growth fan charts. Evaluation is carried out using tests that allow for data dependence and using two GDP growth estimates. Results suggest there are problems with the shorter horizon forecasts, but conclusions about the performance of longer-term forecasts depend to some extent on the GDP estimates used in the assessment.

Keywords

GDP forecastingdensity forecastingfan chartsC4N1
Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 203 , January 2008 , pp. 59 - 67
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

The author would like to thank two anonymous referees, Ken Wellis, and Martin Weale, for helpful feedback, and the ESRC for support under grant RES-000-27-0014. The usual caveat applies.

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