Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-8bhkd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-10T17:01:16.046Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Here is the news: forecast revisions in the Bank of England survey of external forecasters

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Gianna Boero ,
Jeremy Smith  and
Kenneth F. Wallis
Gianna Boero
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, University of Warwick
Jeremy Smith
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, University of Warwick
Kenneth F. Wallis*
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, University of Warwick
*
e-mail: K.F.Wallis@warwick.ac.uk
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article analyses the forecasts of inflation and GDP growth supplied by the individual respondents to the Bank of England's quarterly Survey of External Forecasters, 1996-2005, using a recently released dataset. This comprises a conventional incomplete panel dataset, with an additional dimension arising from the collection of repeated forecasts for the last quarter of each year. This fixed-event forecast structure allows study of the forecast revision process, its weak and strong efficiency, and its relation to macroeconomic news. The collection of density forecasts as well as point forecasts allows study of the revision process of forecast uncertainty.

Keywords

Forecast surveyspoint forecastsdensity forecastsfixed-event forecastsforecast revisionsC42C53E37
Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 203 , January 2008 , pp. 68 - 77
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

∗

We are grateful to Colin Ellis, Debbie Lockhart and Rebecca Capuano (Bank of England) for assembling and helping to clean the survey dataset. Readers wishing to gain access to the data should write to the Publications Editor, Inflation Report and Bulletin Division, Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London EC2R 8AH.

References

Boero, G., Smith, J. and Wallis, K.F. (2007a), ‘Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters’, Economic Journal, forthcoming.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boero, G., Smith, J. and Wallis, K.F. (2007b), ‘Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters’, presented at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference, University of Warwick, April.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clements, M.P. (1997), ‘Evaluating the rationality of fixed-event forecasts’, Journal of Forecasting, 16, pp. 225–239.3.0.CO;2-L>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davies, A. and Lahiri, K. (1995), ‘A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three dimensional panel data’, Journal of Econometrics, 68, pp. 205–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nordhaus, W.D. (1987), ‘Forecasting efficiency: concepts and applications’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, pp. 667–74.Google Scholar