Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-ndw9j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-13T11:36:47.122Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Labour Markets in the Global Financial Crisis: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2020

Fernanda Nechio
Affiliation:
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Abstract

This note examines labour market performance across countries through the lens of Okun's Law. We find that after the 1970s but prior to the global financial crisis of the 2000s, the Okun's Law relationship between output and unemployment became more homogenous across countries. These changes presumably reflected institutional and technological changes. But, at least in the short term, the global financial crisis undid much of this convergence, in part because the affected countries adopted different labour market policies in response to the global demand shock.

Type
Research Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 2014 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

This paper is a somewhat extended version of Daly et al. (2013b). We thank Bart Hobijn, Dawn Holland, Simon Kirby, Ron Smith and Garry Young and participants at the Bank of England for helpful comments.

References

Ball, L.M.Leigh, D. and Loungani, P. (2013), ‘Okun's Law: fit at fifty?’, NBER Working Paper No. 18668, January.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Basu, S. and Fernald, J. (2001), ‘Why is productivity procyclical? Why do we care?’, NBER chapters in New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pp. 225302, National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bean, C. (2014), ‘Sustaining the recovery’, speech given to the North East Chamber of Commerce President's Club Talk, Rockcliffe Hall Hotel, Darlington, 10 March.Google Scholar
Bernanke, B.S. (2012), ‘Recent developments in the labor market’, National Association for Business Economics Annual Conference, Washington D.C., 26 March, available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20120326a.htm.Google Scholar
Burda, M. and Hunt, J. (2011), ‘What explains the German labor market miracle in the Great Recession?’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Congressional Budget Office (2014), Revisions to CBO's Projection of Potential Output Since 2007, The Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office, February, available at http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45012.Google Scholar
Daly, M.C.Fernald, J.G.Jordà, Ò. and Nechio, F. (2013a), ‘Okun's Macroscope and the changing cyclicality of underlying margins of adjustment’, FRBSF Working Paper 2013–32.Google Scholar
Daly, M.C.Fernald, J.G.Jordà, Ò. and Nechio, F. (2013b), ‘Labor markets in the global financial crisis’, FRBSF Economic Letter, 23 December, available at http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2013/december/labour-market-global-financial-crisis-okun-law/.Google Scholar
Elsby, M.W.L.Shin, D. and Solon, G. (2014), ‘Wage adjustment in the Great Recession’, in The Labour Market in the Aftermath of the Great Recession, University of Chicago Press, Journal of Labour Economics.Google Scholar
Galí, J. and van Rens, T. (2014), ‘The vanishing procyclicality of labor productivity’, manuscript, January.Google Scholar
Gordon, R.J. (2011), ‘The evolution of Okun's Law and of cyclical productivity fluctuations in the United States and in the EU-15’, presented at EES/IAB workshop, Labor Market Institutions and the Macroeconomic, Nuremberg, 17–18 June.Google Scholar
Knotek, E.S. (2007), ‘How useful is Okun's Law?’, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas Economic Review, pp. 73103.Google Scholar
IMF (2010), ‘Unemployment dynamics in recessions and recoveries’, World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, April.Google Scholar
Okun, A.M. (1962), ‘Potential GNP: its measurement and significance’, Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association, pp. 98104.Google Scholar
OECD (2013), ‘Protecting jobs, enhancing flexibility: a new look at employment protection legislation’, OECD Employment Outlook 2013, OECD Publishing.Google Scholar