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National Institute Economic Forecasts 1968 to 1991: Some Tests of Forecast Properties

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Nigel Pain  and
Andrew Britton
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Extract

From time to time the Institute has published in the Review assessments of its economic forecasts based on statistical analysis of their relation with the outturn data. The most recent examples are Savage (1983) for GDP forecasts and NIESR (1984) for inflation. A more extensive analysis has now been carried out covering quarterly forecasts over the period from 1968 to 1991 for a range of economic variables. The full results are reported in Pain and Britton (1992). This note summarises some of the main findings.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 141 , August 1992 , pp. 81 - 93
Copyright
Copyright © 1992 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

∗

The research reported here was part of a project on recent forecasting experience in the UK. We are grateful to HM Treasury for providing financial support and to Garry Young for helpful comments. All views expressed are our own.

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