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Nowcasting Euro Area Economic Activity in Real Time: The Role of Confidence Indicators

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Domenico Giannone ,
Lucrezia Reichlin  and
Saverio Simonelli
Domenico Giannone
Affiliation:
ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR
Lucrezia Reichlin
Affiliation:
London Business School and CEPR
Saverio Simonelli*
Affiliation:
University of Naples Federico II, EUI and CSEF
*
E-mail: saverio.simonelli@unina.it
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Abstract

This paper assesses the role of qualitative surveys for the early estimation of GDP in the Euro Area in a model-based automated procedure which exploits the timeliness of their release. The analysis is conducted using both an historical evaluation and a real-time case study on the current conjuncture.

Keywords

Forecastingfactor modelreal-time datalarge data setssurveyE52C33C53
Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 210 , October 2009 , pp. 90 - 97
Copyright
Copyright © 2009 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

∗

Previous versions of this paper have been presented at the workshop on Macroeconomic Forecasting, Analysis and Policy with Data Revision (Montreal, 2006), the 22nd Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (Budapest, 2007) and the CSEF seminar series (Naples, 2008). The authors would like to thank Marta Banbura, Michele Lenza and Michele Modugno for comments. Saverio Simonelli acknowledges the financial support of the Pierre Werner Chair Programme on Monetary Union (EUI).

References

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