Section II The forecast in detail

Extract

Domestic demand is expected to continue to be the driving force behind growth in the economy in 2000, while net trade offers a negative contribution. Household expenditure is forecast to grow by 3½ per cent, before slowing to 2½ per cent thereafter. Both fixed investment and government consumption are expected to grow this year at similar rates. The forecast rate of growth of domestic demand in 2000 is slightly faster than the main components at 4 per cent because of the accumulation of stocks, which were run down last year. Export growth is forecast to pick up to 5½ per cent against 3.9 per cent last year, rising further to 6 per cent in 2001. Imports on the other hand are forecast to grow at over 8 per cent this year, before slowing next year and in 2002.