Section II. The forecast in detail

Extract

It seems likely that the economy expanded rapidly in the second quarter following a virtual standstill in GDP growth in the two quarters at the turn of the year. The bounce back in growth is likely to be somewhat stronger than we had anticipated in April. Our estimates of monthly GDP suggest that the economy grew by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2002 led by strong growth in industrial production of 1.7 per cent. Output in the private service sector is also estimated to have risen rapidly by 1.4 per cent. The pick-up in the industrial sector in the second quarter is primarily a consequence of stronger external demand. Trade data to May suggest that growth in export volumes rose markedly in the first two months of the second quarter. We expect that export volumes rose by just under 5 per cent in the quarter as a whole, increasing GDP by around 1½ per cent. At the same time growth in the demand for imports has risen, albeit by less than the acceleration in export growth. Net trade is expected to have added 0.75 percentage points to GDP growth in the second quarter.