Section II. The forecast in detail

Extract

We estimate that in the third quarter of 1999, output grew by 0.8 per cent. Within this total, household consumption is also forecast to have grown at 0.8 per cent, with higher growth of 1.4 per cent in government consumption. Fixed investment is forecast to have risen by 1.6 per cent and these, together with slightly less destocking than in the second quarter, contribute to a 1.4 per cent increase in domestic demand. This is expected to have been offset by a further negative contribution from net trade with strong growth in imports, especially services, offsetting the growth of exports.