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The UK Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Garry Young
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Extract

Since the beginning of 1995 output has been growing at a quarterly rate of just under ½ per cent, slightly less than most estimates of the trend growth rate that the economy can sustain in the long run. As a consequence, there has been no progress in closing any pre-existing output gap. Over this period, there has been a lack of any domestically generated inflationary pressure. Indeed, if import prices had not risen sharply in 1995, the underlying rate of inflation would have remained below 2½ per cent.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 157 , July 1996 , pp. 11 - 27
Copyright
Copyright © 1996 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

∗

The forecast was compiled usmg the latest version of the National Institute Domestic Econometnc Model. I am grateful to Martin Weale and Nigel Pain for helpful comments and discussions and to David Pouhzac for his help with the database and charts. The forecast was completed on July 16th 1996, some subsequent information is incorporated in the text.

References

Pain, N. and Westaway, P. (1996), ‘Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: a comparison of alternative house price models’, National Institute Discussion Paper no. 98.Google Scholar
Poulizac, D., Weale, M. and Young, G. (1996), ‘The performance of National Institute economic forecasts’, National Institute Economic Review, no. 156, May, pp. 55–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar