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The UK Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Andrew Britton ,
Nigel Pain  and
Garry Young
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Extract

The growth of output is continuing in the first half of the year at a moderate and steady pace. The preliminary estimate for gross domestic product in the first quarter shows an increase of 0.7 per cent, which is 2.6 per cent on a year earlier (see Chart 1). If oil and gas are excluded the increase is just 2.0 per cent. This rate of growth is not quite in line with the long-term trend, suggesting that little if any of the slack created by the recession has been taken up. The CBI survey of manufacturing and some labour market indicators however would seem to be consistent with a rather more rapid recovery and it is possible that the recent figures for GDP will eventually be revised up.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 148 , May 1994 , pp. 7 - 23
Copyright
Copyright © 1994 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

∗

The forecast was compiled using the latest version of the National Institute Domestic Econometric Model. It was completed on 6th May 1994. We are grateful to Florence Hubert for statistical assistance.