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The UK Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Nigel Pain
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Extract

Last year again proved a disappointing one for the UK economy with GDP declining by around 3/4 per cent, although activity does appear to have stabilised over the course of the year with some continuing weakness in domestic demand in the fourth quarter being offset by more favourable trading conditions in export markets. Since our last forecast in November little has happened to change our view as to how the economy will develop over the coming months. Domestic activity should be buttressed by the recent relaxation in monetary policy, allowing a moderate export-led recovery to get underway. However, conflicting signals as to the state of the economy may appear for some while since it is to be expected that the full impact of the recent reductions in interest rates will take some time to materialise.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 143 , February 1993 , pp. 8 - 26
Copyright
Copyright © 1993 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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Footnotes

*

The forecast draws on the work of the whole team engaged in macroeconomic analysis at the Institute. I am grateful to Andrew Britton, Ray Barrell and Garry Young for helpful comments and discussions and to Helen Finnegan and Gillian Francis for statistical assistance. The forecast was completed on 1 February 1993.

References

Pain, N., Anderton, B., and Westaway, P., (1992), ‘A systems approach to the demand for imports and domestic output in the UK’, NIESR Discussion Paper No. 12.Google Scholar
Tsoukis, C. and Westaway, P., (1992), ‘A forward-looking model of housing construction in the UK’, NIESR Discussion Paper No. 13.Google Scholar
Young, G. (1992), ‘Industrial Investment and Economic Policy’, in Andrew Britton (ed), Industrial Investment as a Policy Objective, NIESR Report Series No. 3.Google Scholar