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Unemployment Among School Leavers: An Analysis of the Problem

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

A.J.H. Dean
A.J.H. Dean*
Affiliation:
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
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Abstract

This article examines the problem of unemployment among school leavers. It is shown that although the summer peak in such unemployment has reached record levels in recent years this remains a largely temporary phenomenon. However, longer term unemployment among school leavers is now becoming a serious problem. Though the Government's present measures will relieve the problem somewhat they provide a temporary palliative rather than a longer term solution.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 78 , November 1976 , pp. 63 - 68
Copyright
Copyright © 1976 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

(1) In 1975/76 those pupils who were eligible to leave were allowed to do so as from the end of May and were thus able to register as unemployed at least one month earlier than normal.

(2) The statutory minimum school leaving age was 15 from 1947 to 1972 and was raised to 16 at the start of the 1972/3 school year, resulting in there being about 250,000-300,000 fewer school leavers in 1973.

(1) In the 1974/5 school year 2 per cent of all leavers in the year left at Christmas, 11 per cent at Easter, and 87 per cent in the summer.

(2) The ratio in 1973 rose to 25 due to the raising of the school leaving age.

(1) One should note that, due largely to demographic factors, the size of the school leaving population has increased by 100,000 in the last ten years; it is also projected to increase by a further 100,000 in the next five years.

(1) This comment applies equally to the calculation of the peak rate as a percentage of all school leavers.

(2) The trend in the ratio over the last four years has been decreasing. Furthermore there is some evidence, cited above, that the peak/trough ratio fluctuates inversely with the level of unemployment, which will still be high in 1977.

(1) These schemes are documented in Economic Progress Report, no. 79, October 1976.

(2) This is also a problem with the Employment Secre tary's recent encouragement to unemployed school leavers to return to school.