The world economy

Abstract

• • The prospects for the US economy in 1999 appear brighter than they did last October, but remain heavily dependent on the health of the stock market.

• • The Japanese economy is now expected to decline in 1999 by a further half a per cent following the 3 per cent fall in 1998.

• • There is a risk that Japan may enter a prolonged downward spiral without a prompt initiative to expand the money supply much more aggressively.

• • The Euro Area is slowing down to growth of little more than 2 per cent in 1999.

• • With consumer price inflation of only 1 per cent in the euro area, there is scope for a further half a percentage point cut in euro interest rates; we anticipate a quarter point reduction this spring.