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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 26 March 2020
Global activity continued to gain momentum in the early months of this year, helped by above trend growth in the North American economies. There was also a temporary acceleration in the growth of consumers' expenditure in Japan prior to a rise in indirect taxes in April. Total output in the OECD economies is estimated to have risen by 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of the year to a level 2.9 per cent higher than a year earlier. Output in the NAFTA member states rose by 1.4 per cent, and was over 4 per cent higher than in the first quarter of 1996. Conditions appear to remain favourable for steady growth through the remainder of this year, with OECD GDP projected to rise by 2¾ per cent in 1997 and 2½ per cent in 1998.
We are grateful to Ray Barrell for helpful comments and to Dawn Holland and Dirk Te Velde for statistical assistance. The forecast was completed on July 11, 1997.
(1) Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report, June 1997, p.4.