The world economy

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Developments in the Asian economies have clearly begun to be felt in the wider global economy in recent months. It has always been expected that the OECD economies would be affected by the aftermath of the capital market turmoil last year, although the timing and magnitude of the impact was difficult to predict. Domestic demand in the affected Asian economies has proved much weaker than expected, with the effects magnified by a continued downturn in Japan. GDP fell by 5¾ per cent in Korea in the first quarter of this year and by 1¼ per cent in Japan. The aggregate volume of merchandise imports in Asia is expected to decline by around 5½ per cent this year, with falls of up to 25 per cent in countries such as Korea, Thailand and Indonesia. This largely accounts for our projected decline in world trade growth to under 6 per cent this year from an estimated 9¾ per cent in 1997.