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The Political Implications of Demographic and Industrial Developments in Soviet Central Asia*
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 20 November 2018
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Western studies of Russian or Soviet Central Asia originated in England, spearheaded by Anglo-Russian rivalry in the area in the second part of the nineteenth century. British research was dominant until after World War II, covering the field from classical academic study (Royal Central Asian Society) to current affairs (Col. Wheeler's Central Asian Research Center).
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- Copyright © 1979 by the Association for the Study of the Nationalities (USSR and East Europe) Inc.
References
Notes
1. Soviet sources provide a list of “notorious authors” in the field. Tuzmukhamedov, R., How the National Question Was Solved in Soviet Central Asia (Moscow: Progress Publ., 1973), p. 19, lists: Aspaturian, Vernon V., Zenkowsky, Serge, Allworth, Edward, Park, Alexander G., Pipes, Richard, Rywkin, Michael, and Bacon, Elisabeth in the United States; Olaf Caroe, Walter Kolarz, J. A. Newth, Hugh Seton-Watson, Geoffrey Wheeler, Alex Nove and Ann Sheehy in Great Britain; Alexandre Bennigsen, Hélène Carrere d'Encausse, Chantal Lemercier-Quelquejay in France; Boris Meissner, and Stefen Wurth in the Federal Republic of Germany.Google Scholar
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4. My principle source in that field: Bandera, N. and Melnyk, Z. L. (eds.), The Soviet Economy in Regional Perspective (New York: Praeger, 1973)Google Scholar
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21. Called by Critchlow “la revanche des berceaux”, by others “victory in the bedroom”.Google Scholar
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24. For a good Soviet bibliography on migration problems, see Staroverov, V. I., Sotsialisticheskie problemy derevni. Metodologiia, metodika, opyt analiza migratsii sel'skogo naseleniia (Moscow: Nauka, 1975), pp. 263-83. It also includes a list of 3 books and 14 articles by Perevedentsev.Google Scholar
25. Lewis, Robert A., Rowland, Richard H. and Clem, Ralph S., Nationality and Population Change in Russia and the USSR. An evaluation of Census Date, 1897–1970 (New York and London: Praeger, 1976), esp. pp 350-87.Google Scholar
26. Ibid., p. 355. See also Feshbach and Rapawy, “Soviet Population,” pp. 128-129.Google Scholar
27. Soviet sources insist that the necessary rate of growth has been achieved. Trapeznikov, G. R., “Uzbekistan epokhi razvitogo sotsializma,” Voprosy istorii, No. 2 (1977), p. 11, speaks of a 10% increase in irrigated land surfaces in Uzbekistan “during the last five years”.Google Scholar
28. Lewis, Rowland and Clem, Nationality, p. 357.Google Scholar
29. Ibid., p. 358.Google Scholar
30. Ibid., p. 367-68.Google Scholar
31. Ibid., p. 371.Google Scholar
32. Lewis, Robert A., Rowland, Richard H. and Clem, Ralph S., “Modernization, Population Change and Nationality in Soviet Central Asia and Kazakhstan,” Canadian Slavonic Papers, vol. 18, nos. 2, 3 (1975), p. 295.Google Scholar
33. Ibid., referring to Shibatuni, Tamotsu and Kwan, Kian M., Ethnic Stratification: A Comparitive Approach (New York: Macmillan, 1965).Google Scholar
34. Ibid., pp. 297-98.Google Scholar
35. Sheehy, Quoting Ann, “Some Aspects of Regional Development in Soviet Central Asia,” Slavid Review, No. 31 (Sept. 1972), pp. 589-60.Google Scholar
36. Lewis, Rowland and Clem, Nationality and Population Change …, p. 375.Google Scholar
37. Ibid., p. 361.Google Scholar
38. Ibid., p. 481.Google Scholar
39. Feshbach, Murray, “Prospects for Massive Out-Migration from Central Asia During the Next Decade” (Paper for U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Feb. 1977).Google Scholar
40. Ibid., pp. 4–5.Google Scholar
41. Ibid., p. 7. Among them Kostiakov, V. G. in Seriia ekonomicheskaia No. 4 (1971), pp. 89-90; and Trudovye resursy piatiletki (Moscow: Politizdat, 1976), p. 56, as quoted by Feshbach, “Prospects.”Google Scholar
42. Planovoe khoziaistvo, No. 11 (Nov. 1976), pp. 19–22, as quoted by Feshbach. Nevertheless natural gas and cotton, the most important resources of the area, are exported to the RSFSR in their raw form rather than serving to develop new chemical and textile factories (Bandera and Melnyk, Soviet Economy, p. 28).Google Scholar
43. Feshbach, “Prospects,” p. 17.Google Scholar
44. Ibid., p. 18. See also Wesley Fisher, “Ethnic Consciousness and Intermarriage: Correlates of Endogamy among Major Soviet Nationalities,” Soviet Studies, vol. 29, no. 3 (July 1977), p. 398, for general endogamy index. Bennigsen attributes it to obedience to Shariat, even among nonbelievers (see below).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
45. Feshbach, “Prospects,” pp. 19–20. See also Alexander Bennigsen, “Islam in the Soviet Union. The Religious Factor and the Nationality Problem in the Soviet Union,” in Bociurkiw, Bohdan and Strong, John W. (eds.), Religion and Atheism in the USSR and Eastern Europe (U. of Toronto Press, 1975), p. 97.Google Scholar
46. According to Ekonomicheskie nauki, N. 1 (Jan. 1972), p. 52, the cost of a basket of goods for a family of four was in Central Asia 90.2% of that of central Russia (as quoted by Feshbach, “Prospects”).Google Scholar
47. Feshbach, “Prospects,” p. 21.Google Scholar
48. Ibid., p. 23.Google Scholar
49. Topilin, A. V., Territorial'noe pereraspredelenie trudovykh resursov v SSSR (Moscow: Ekonomika, 1975).Google Scholar
50. Ibid., pp. 13ff and 122ff.Google Scholar
51. See Sadoshenko, S., “Na stroiku ne pribyli,” Kommunist Tadjikistana, 3.7.77.Google Scholar
52. Topilin, Pereraspredelenie, p. 127.Google Scholar
53. Ibid., p. 47.Google Scholar
54. Ibid., p. 92.Google Scholar
55. Ibid., pp. 44–45, 56. For every 100 people who left Central Asia in 1959-70, there came to Central Asia from the rest of the USSR — 113 persons, RSFSR — 124 persons, Far East — 112 persons, East Siberia — 153 persons, and West Siberia — 159 persons.Google Scholar
56. Ibid., p. 92.Google Scholar
57. The importance of such factors is denied by Perevedentsev, who insists that it is the search for better living standards and not labor shortages that attracts migration. See Perevedentsev, V. I., “Sovremennaia migratsiia naseleniia v SSSR,” Narodonaselenie i ekonomika (Moscow: Ekonomika, 1967), p. 104.Google Scholar
58. Topilin, Pereraspredelenie, p. 63.Google Scholar
59. Ibid., p. 45. Reported were 100 new arrivals for every 88 moving out of the area.Google Scholar
60. Ibid., p. 83–84. Central Asia and Transcaucasia together.Google Scholar
61. Ibid., pp. 62–63.Google Scholar
62. Ibid., pp. 122–129.Google Scholar
63. Ibid., p. 153.Google Scholar
64. Ibid., p. 120.Google Scholar
65. As reported by Galetskaia, R., “Demograficheskaia politika i ee napravleniia,” Voprosy ekonomiki, No. 8 (1975), pp. 149-52.Google Scholar
66. Topilin, Pereraspredelenie, p. 149, remarks that Central Asians show “little desire” for outside work.Google Scholar
67. Besemeres, “Population Politics,” p. 75.Google Scholar
68. Kazias, Juozas A., “Social Distance Among Ethnic Groups,” in Allworth, Edward (ed.), Nationality Group Survival in Multi-Ethnic States. Shifting Support Patterns in the Soviet Baltic Regions (New York and London: Praeger, 1977), p. 246.Google Scholar
69. Bzhilianskii, Iu. A., Problemy narodonaseleniia pri sotsializme. Politiko-ekonomicheskii analiz (Moscow: Mysl', 1974), p. 177, insists that due to “irrational utilization of labor” immigrants to labor-rich Central Asia have no difficulty finding jobs.Google Scholar
70. Kazias, “Social Distance,” p. 246, considers that some Central Asian Germans already began to move to more ethnically akin Baltic areas.Google Scholar
71. See Shorish, Mobin, “Soviet Development Strategies in Central Asia,” Canadian Slavonic Papers, vol. 17, nos. 2, 3 (1975), pp. 410ff.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
72. Critchlow, James, “Uzbeks and Russians,” Ibid., p. 368.Google Scholar
73. In 1967, among those who left Central Asia for Kiev (Ukraine), 20-30% were Ukrainians, only 7-10% Moslems, and the remainder obviously other Europeans (Russians, Jews, Maybe Germans). See Onikienko, V. V., Kompleksnoe issledovanie migratsionnykh protsessov. Analiz migratsii naseleniia Ukr. SSR. (Moscow: Statistika, 1973), pp. 39, 152.Google Scholar
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Itogi vsesoiuznoi perepisi …, 7:6–7, show small positive balances for the RSFSR in its population exchanges with Central Asia and Kazalhstan (based on counts of new arrivals, residing less than 2 years in the new area): balance with Kazakhstan — + 36,000, balance with Uzbekistan — + 44,000, balance with Turkmenistan — +7,000, balance with Tadjikistan — +11,000. However, the total number of Uzbeks living in the RSFSR in 1970 corresponds to RSFSR's positive balance of population exchange with Uzbekistan (as above). One cannot assume that they have just arrived. In addition, the largest concentration of Uzbeks in the RSFSR is in Moscow (6,000), not at Siberian stroika's. Google Scholar
74. Rasulov, D., ‘V bor'be za razvitie proizvoditel'nykh sil respubliki, Kommunist, No. 15 (1974), pp. 62–63, sees orgnabor style migration as only one of the four ways to solve Central Asian labor surplus problems, the other three being: (1) traditional industrialization; (2) labor-intensive industries; (3) increase in areas under irrigation.Google Scholar
Besemeres, “Population Politics,” p. 70, foresees 63 millions of Central Asian Moslems facing 11-12 millions “Russians” (Europeans?) by the year 2000.Google Scholar
75. Ibid., p. 75.Google Scholar
76. Ibid., p. 62.Google Scholar
77. Ibid., pp. 71 and 75.Google Scholar
78. Conversation with Bennigsen, June 1977. Lewis’ arguments about the unsuitability of northern Kazakhstan for Uzbek settlement become irrelevant in such a case.Google Scholar
79. Pavlevsky, Jovan, Le niveau de vie en URSS de la revolution d'octobre a 1980 (Paris: Economica, 1975), p. 155; Bandera and Melnik, Soviet Economy, p. 178. Total income per kolkhoz family (USSR = 100: RSFSR — 104, Central Asia — 147.6- 188.3 (in 1963) (without Kazakhstan); Total income from private plots (1966) USSR = 100: RSFSR — 88, Central Asia — 91- 133 (without Kazakhstan)Google Scholar
80. Narodnoe khoziaistvo Uzbekskoi SSR v 1974 godu (Tashkent: izd. Uzbekistan, 1975), pp. 152, 161.Google Scholar
81. Bzhilianskii, Problemy, p. 169, mentions slightly over 1/3 of milk, meat and vegetables in the USSR as a whole (1969) produced by private plots.Google Scholar
82. According to Lewis, Rowland and Clem, Nationality and Population Change…, p. 366, 11.0 per capita in the USSR as a whole vs. 8.8 in Central Asia (based on 1970 Soviet data).Google Scholar
83. Narodnoe khoziaistvo SSSR v 1974 godu (Moscow: Statistika, 1975), p. 587, and data on urban population by republics.Google Scholar
84. Average monthly wage according to Bandera and Melnyk, Soviet Economy, p. 174: USSR — 1965 - 100, 1970 - 100; RSFSR — 1965 − 102.6, 1970 − 103.4; Uzbekistan — 1965 − 92.4, 1970 − 93.4; Kazakhstan — 1965 − 105.5, 1970 − 99.2; Kirgiziia — 1965 − 92.3, 1970 − 90.5; Tadjikistan — 1965 − 95.4, 1970 − 96.7; Turkmenistan — 1965 − 103.6, 1970 − 104.9.Google Scholar
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87. Rywkin, Michael, “Religion, Modern Nationalism and Political Power in Soviet Central Asia,” Canadian Slavonic Papers, vol. 17, nos. 2 & 3 (1975), pp. 278-79.Google Scholar
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88. Current involvment of Uzbek labor in the rejuvenation of non-black soil zone of European Russia seems to be mostly limited to Europeans residing in Uzbekistan (according to Sheehy, Ann, Radio Liberty, Munich).Google Scholar
89. Already in 1959-70, over 2/3 of village to city immigrants in Central Asia came from within the area (see Khorev and Moiseenko, Migratsionnaiapodvizhnost', p. 56).Google Scholar
90. Besemeres, “Population Politics,” p. 79.Google Scholar
91. Wixman, Ronald, “Recent Assimilation Trends in Soviet Central Asia,” in Allworth, Edward (ed.), The Nationality Question in Soviet Central Asia (New York: Praeger, 1975), p. 84.Google Scholar
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94. Bromlei, Iu. V., “Etnicheskie aspekty sovremennykh natsional'nykh protsessov,” Istoriia SSSR (May/June 1977), p. 31, reports that in Turkmenistan 90% of children of Russian-Turkmen marriages are declared Turkmen.Google Scholar
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See also Hallik, Klara, “Rol’ kul'turnykh sviazei v ukreplenii druzhby sovetskikh liudei,” Kommunist Estonii (No. 9, 1969), p. 36, for a discussion about possible Central Asian and not all-Soviet sliianie. Google Scholar
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