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On the statistical detection of cycles in extinctions in the marine fossil record

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 April 2016

James F. Quinn*
Affiliation:
Division of Environmental Studies and Department of Zoology, University of California, Davis, California 95616

Abstract

Periodicity has recently been reported in the extinction rates of fossil marine families since the Permian. The analysis used appears particularly sensitive to parameter estimation techniques, particularly in the definition of mass extinctions. It also fails to incorporate autocorrelation in the fossil record into its null hypothesis and rests on an inappropriate a posteriori comparison to the null hypothesis. An alternative analysis, examining the time-lags between periods of high extinction rates, produces no evidence of a cycle.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © The Paleontological Society 

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