Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-xbtfd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-13T03:59:23.503Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Actual Causation by Probabilistic Active Paths

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Abstract

Recently Halpern and Pearl and Hitchcock have presented influential accounts of actual (token) causation using Bayesian networks. These accounts have been deterministic. Here we present a probabilistic extension to these active path analyses of actual causation. The extension uses “soft” interventions to set distributions rather than just single values. The resulting account can handle at least as wide a range of examples as the original accounts, without assuming determinism.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

This work was funded in part by a Monash Arts/IT grant. We are grateful for comments by Toby Handfield, Graham Oppy, Lucas Hope, Chris Hitchcock, an anonymous reviewer, and participants in the Monash 2004 causation seminar as well as PSA 2010 in Montreal.

References

Cheng, P. W. 1997. “From Covariation to Causation: A Causal Power Theory.” Psychological Review 104 (2): 367405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Halpern, J. Y., and Pearl, J.. 2005a. “Causes and Explanations: A Structural-Model Approach.” Pt. 1, “Causes.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 56:843–87.Google Scholar
Halpern, J. Y., and Pearl, J.. 2005b. “Causes and Explanations: A Structural-Model Approach.” Pt. 2, “Explanations.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 56:889911.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Handfield, T., Twardy, C. R., Korb, K. B., and Oppy, G.. 2008. “The Metaphysics of Causal Models: Where's the Biff?Erkenntnis 68:149–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hiddleston, E. 2005. “Causal Powers.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 56:2759.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hitchcock, C. R. 2001. “The Intransitivity of Causation Revealed in Equations and Graphs.” Journal of Philosophy 98 (6): 273–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Korb, K., Hope, L., Nicholson, A., and Axnick, K.. 2004. “Varieties of Causal Intervention.” In Pacific Rim Conference on Artificial Intelligence, ed. Zhang, Chengqi and Güsgen, Hans Werner, 322–31. New York: Springer.Google Scholar
Korb, K. B., and Nicholson, A. E.. 2008. “The Causal Interpretation of Bayesian Networks.” In Innovations in Bayesian Networks: Theory and Applications, ed. Holmes, D. E. and Jain, L. C., 83116. Berlin: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pearl, J. 2000. Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Twardy, C. R., and Korb, K. B.. 2011. “Actual Causation by Probabilistic Active Paths (Supplement).” PhilSci Archive, http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/8878/.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woodward, J. 2005. Making Things Happen: A Theory of Causal Explanation. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar