Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-mkpzs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T03:57:06.142Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Adjusting Inferential Thresholds to Reflect Nonepistemic Values

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Abstract

Many philosophers have challenged the ideal of value-free science on the grounds that social or moral values are relevant to inferential thresholds. But given this view, how precisely and to what extent should scientists adjust their inferential thresholds in light of nonepistemic values? We suggest that signal detection theory provides a useful framework for addressing this question. Moreover, this approach opens up further avenues for philosophical inquiry and has important implications for philosophical debates concerning inductive risk. For example, the signal detection theory framework entails that considerations of inductive risk and inferential-threshold placement cannot be conducted in isolation from base-rate information.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

The authors would like to thank the editor, two anonymous reviewers, and seminar participants at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München. The usual disclaimer applies.

References

Ayles, H., Schaap, A., Nota, A., Sismanidis, C., Tembwe, R., Haas, P. De, Muyoyeta, M., Beyers, N., and Godfrey-Faussett, P.. 2009. “Prevalence of Tuberculosis, HIV and Respiratory Symptoms in Two Zambian Communities: Implications for Tuberculosis Control in the Era of HIV.” PloS ONE 4 (5): 112..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Berger, James O. 1985. Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis. Berlin: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Betz, Gregor. 2013. “In Defence of the Value Free Ideal.” European Journal for Philosophy of Science 3 (2): 207–20..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Biddle, Justin B., and Kukla, Rebecca. 2017. “The Geography of Epistemic Risk.” In Exploring Inductive Risk: Case Studies of Values in Science, ed. Elliott, K. and Richards, T, 215–37. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Bobinac, Ana, Exel, Job van, Rutten, Frans F. H., and Brouwer, Werner B. F.. 2014. “The Value of a QALY: Individual Willingness to Pay for Health Gains under Risk.” PharmacoEconomics 32 (1): 7586..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cantor, Scott B., Sun, Charlotte C., Tortolero-Luna, Guillermo, Richards-Kortum, Rebeccas, and Folen, Michele. 1999. “A Comparison of C/B Ratios from Studies Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis.” Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 52 (9): 885–92..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Carbone, Andrea da Silva Santos, et al. 2015. “Active and Latent Tuberculosis in Brazilian Correctional Facilities: A Cross-Sectional Study.” BMC Infectious Diseases 15 (24): 18..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Churchman, C. W. 1948. “Statistics, Pragmatics, Induction.” Philosophy of Science 15:249–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cranor, C. 1993. Regulating Toxic Substances: A Philosophy of Science and the Law. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeBaun, Michael R., and Sox, Harold C.. 1991. “Setting the Optimal Erythrocyte Protoporphyrin Screening Decision Threshold for Lead Poisoning: A Decision Analytic Approach.” Pediatrics 88 (1): 121–31..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
DeCarlo, Lawrence T. 1998. “Signal Detection Theory and Generalized Linear Models.” Psychological Methods 3 (2): 186205..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Douglas, Heather. 2000. “Inductive Risk and Values in Science.” Philosophy of Science 67 (4): 559–79..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Douglas, Heather. 2009. Science, Policy, and the Value-Free Ideal. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Egan, James. 1975. Signal Detection Theory and ROC Analysis. London: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Elliott, Kevin C. 2011. “Direct and Indirect Roles for Values in Science.” Philosophy of Science 78 (2): 303–24..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, K. K., Birdwell, R. L., and Wolfe, J. M.. 2013. “If You Don’t Find It Often, You Often Don’t Find It: Why Some Cancers Are Missed in Breast Cancer Screening.” PLoS ONE 8 (5): 16..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Fournet, N., Sanchez, A., Massari, V., Penna, L., Natal, S., Biondi, E., and Larouze, B.. 2006. “Development and Evaluation of Tuberculosis Screening Scores in Brazilian Prisons.” Public Health 20 (10): 976–83..Google Scholar
Green, D. M., and Swets, J. A.. 1966. Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics. London: Wiley.Google Scholar
Hagen, Michael D. 1995. “Test Characteristics: How Good Is That Test?Primary Care: Clinics in Office Practice 22 (2): 213–33..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hempel, Carl G. 1965. “Science and Human Values.” In Aspects of Scientific Explanation and Other Essays in the Philosophy of Science, 8196. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Jeffrey, Richard C. 1956. “Valuation and Acceptance of Scientific Hypotheses.” Philosophy of Science 22 (3): 237–46..Google Scholar
Joyce, James M. 1998. “A Nonpragmatic Vindication of Probabilism.” Philosophy of Science 65 (4): 575603..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kadane, Joseph B., Schervish, Mark J., and Seidenfeld, Teddy. 1999. Rethinking the Foundations of Statistics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaivanto, Kim. 2014. “The Effect of Decentralized Behavioral Decision Making on System-Level Risk.” Risk Analysis 34 (12): 2121–42..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kik, S. V., Olthof, S. P. J., de Vries, J. T. N., Menzies, D., Kincler, N., van Loenhout-Rooyakkers, J., Burdo, C., and Verver, S.. 2009. “Direct and Indirect Costs of Tuberculosis among Immigrant Patients in the Netherlands.” BMC Public Health 9 (283): 19..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kitcher, Philip. 2001. Science, Truth, and Democracy. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levi, Isaac. 1960. “Must the Scientist Make Value Judgments?Journal of Philosophy 57 (11): 345–57..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levi, Isaac. 1962. “On the Seriousness of Mistakes.” Philosophy of Science 29 (1): 4765..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levi, Keith. 1985. “A Signal Detection Framework for the Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 36 (2): 143–66..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lusted, Lee B. 1971. “Decision-Making Studies in Patient Management.” New England Journal of Medicine 284:416–24.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Marzban, Caran. 2004. “The ROC Curve and the Area under It as Performance Measures.” Weather and Forecasting 19 (6): 1106–14..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrison, Margaret. 2014. “Values and Uncertainty in Simulation Models.” Erkenntnis 79 (S5): 939–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parker, Wendy S. 2010. “Predicting Weather and Climate: Uncertainty, Ensembles and Probability.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 41 (3): 263–72..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pettigrew, Richard. 2016. “Accuracy, Risk, and the Principle of Indifference.” Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 92 (1): 3559..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roberts, C. A., Lobato, M. N., Bazerman, L. B., Kling, R., Reichard, A. A., and Hammett, T. M.. 2006. “Tuberculosis Prevention and Control in Large Jails: A Challenge to Tuberculosis Elimination.” American Journal of Preventive Medicine 30 (2): 125–30..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rudner, Richard. 1953. “The Scientist qua Scientist Makes Value Judgments.” Philosophy of Science 20 (1): 16..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scarantino, Andrea. 2010. “Inductive Risk and Justice in Kidney Allocation.” Bioethics 24 (8): 421–30..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schervish, Mark J., Seidenfeld, Teddy, and Kadane, Joseph B.. 2002. “A Rate of Incoherence Applied to Fixed-Level Testing.” Philosophy of Science 69 (Proceedings): S248S264.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shrader-Frechette, K. 1991. Risk and Rationality: Philosophical Foundations for Populist Reforms. Berkeley: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steel, Daniel. 2010. “Epistemic Values and the Argument from Inductive Risk.” Philosophy of Science 77 (1): 1434..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steel, Daniel. 2016. “Climate Change and Second-Order Uncertainty: Defending a Generalized, Normative, and Structural Argument from Inductive Risk.” Perspectives on Science 24 (6): 696721..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Steele, Katie. 2012. “The Scientist qua Policy Advisor Makes Value Judgments.” Philosophy of Science 79 (5): 893904..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Swets, John A. 2001. “Signal Detection Theory, History Of.” In International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences, ed. Smelser, Neil J., 14078–82. Amsterdam: Elsevier.Google Scholar
Swets, John A., Dawes, Robyn M., and Monahan, John. 2000. “Better Decisions through Science.” Scientific American 283 (4): 8287..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ulehla, Z. Joseph. 1966. “Optimality of Perceptual Decision Criteria.” Journal of Experimental Psychology 71 (4): 564–69..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wald, Abraham. 1942. On the Principles of Statistical Inference. Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press.Google Scholar
Wilholt, Torsten. 2009. “Bias and Values in Scientific Research.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science 40 (1): 92101..CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilholt, Torsten. 2016. “The Seriousness of Mistakes and the Benefits of Getting It Right: Symmetries and Asymmetries in Epistemic Risk Management.” Paper presented at the 5th René Descartes Lectures Workshop, Tilburg University, September 57.Google Scholar
Winsberg, Eric. 2012. “Values and Uncertainties in the Predictions of Global Climate Models.” Kennedy Institute Ethics Journal 22 (2): 111–37..CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wolfe, Jeremy M., Horowitz, Todd S., and Kenner, Naomi M.. 2005. “Rare Items Often Missed in Visual Searches.” Nature 435:439–40.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wolfe, Jeremy M., Horowitz, Todd S., Van Wert, M. J., Kenner, N. M., Place, S. S., and Kibbi, N.. 2007. “Low Target Prevalence Is a Stubborn Source of Errors in Visual Search Tasks.” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 136 (4): 623–38..Google ScholarPubMed