Published online by Cambridge University Press: 01 January 2022
I show how scoring rules, interpreted as measuring the inaccuracy of a set of degrees of belief, may be exploited to construct confirmation measures as used in Bayesian confirmation theory. I construct two confirmation measures from two particular standard scoring rules. One of these measures is genuinely new, the second is trivially ordinally equivalent to the difference measure. These two measures are tested against three well-known measures of confirmation in a simple but illuminating case that contains in a natural way the problem of irrelevant conjunction. The genuinely new measure emerges, arguably, as the best.
I thank the anonymous referees for their very useful comments.